QBs vs Los Angeles Rams
As of Week 3 · through 1 game · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Brock Purdy | 25 | 34 | 205 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 21.1 |
| Average | 25.0 | 34.0 | 205.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 21.1 | ||
| Median | 25.0 | 34.0 | 205.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 21.1 | ||
| High | 25 | 34 | 205 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 21.1 | ||
| Low | 25 | 34 | 205 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 21.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Bo Nix
Nobody knows which slot Bo Nix will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 15.0 points for Bo Nix if playing as a QB1. Bo Nix has averaged 9.8 over 2 games, and the Rams have given up 21.1 to QB1s (+25% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Bo Nix scored: Wk 1 5.4, Wk 2 14.1. Average 9.8; weighted toward recent games it is 14.1.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Rams allowed 21.1 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is +25%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +6% adjustment (x1.06).
4. Result. 14.1 x 1.06 = 15.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Bo Nix is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.0 points, leaning on Bo Nix's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 15.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- QB1s have averaged 205.0 passing yards, 3.0 passing TDs and 29.0 rushing yards against the Rams across 1 game.
- The Rams allow 21.1 PPR points to QB1s, +25% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Bo Nix averages 9.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 10.3) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Rams have allowed 21.1 points to QB1s over 1 game (+25% vs league). The model applies 25% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +6% adjustment.
- Last season's average (17.9) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -5%: Vegas total 45.5, implied 21.5 points for DEN (league avg 22.6); Wind about 13 mph: hurts passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Kamren Kinchens (S) is out, which helps the passing game.
- Flag: 2 offensive linemen are out (Gargiulo, Crum). Protection and run blocking may suffer.
- Projection: 14.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Bo Nix's stats vs the Rams
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Bo Nix has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Bo Nix will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Bo Nix's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Bo Nix usually produces.
Projected is Bo Nix's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 17 | 28 | 131 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5.4 |
| 2 | JAX | 22 | 31 | 288 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 14.1 |
| Nix avg | 19.5 | 29.5 | 209.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 9.8 | |
| Rams QB1 avg | 25.0 | 34.0 | 205.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 21.1 | |
| Difference | +5.5 | +4.5 | -4.5 | +2.0 | +0.0 | +1.0 | +25.0 | +0.0 | +11.3 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 20.7 | 31.3 | 222.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 15.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Nix averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.