QBs vs New York Giants
As of Week 3 · through 1 game · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DAL | Dak Prescott | 22 | 34 | 175 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 14.4 |
| Average | 22.0 | 34.0 | 175.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 14.4 | ||
| Median | 22.0 | 34.0 | 175.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 14.4 | ||
| High | 22 | 34 | 175 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 14.4 | ||
| Low | 22 | 34 | 175 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 14.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Cam Ward should do vs the GiantsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Giants, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Cam Ward has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Giants opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Cam Ward will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Giants avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Cam Ward's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Cam Ward usually produces.
Projected is Cam Ward's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Giants were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 19 | 32 | 140 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 11.7 |
| 2 | PHI | 13 | 20 | 183 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 20.0 |
| Ward avg | 16.0 | 26.0 | 161.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 15.9 | |
| Giants QB1 avg | 22.0 | 34.0 | 175.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 14.4 | |
| Difference | +6.0 | +8.0 | +13.5 | +1.5 | +1.0 | -2.0 | +0.0 | -1.0 | -1.5 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 15.4 | 25.0 | 155.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 13.5 | 1.0 | 13.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Ward averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Cam WardLow confidence · 12.9 proj ptsSit
- Cam Ward averages 15.9 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 16.3) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Giants have allowed 14.4 points to QB1s over 1 game (-15% vs league). The model applies 25% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -4% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.0) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -7%: Vegas total 42.5, implied 18.3 points for TEN (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 6: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (76F, 7 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+5%): Opposing starter Deonte Banks (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Paulson Adebo (CB) is on IR, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 12.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreCam Ward vs the Giants
Prediction for Cam Ward
Nobody knows which slot Cam Ward will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Giants.
I predict about 13.1 points for Cam Ward if playing as a QB1. Cam Ward has averaged 15.9 over 2 games, and the Giants have given up 14.4 to QB1s (-15% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Cam Ward scored: Wk 1 11.7, Wk 2 20.0. Average 15.9; weighted toward recent games it is 13.7.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Giants allowed 14.4 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is -15%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -4% adjustment (x0.96).
4. Result. 13.7 x 0.96 = 13.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Cam Ward is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.9 points, leaning on Cam Ward's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 175.0 passing yards, 2.0 passing TDs and 14.0 rushing yards against the Giants across 1 game.
- The Giants allow 14.4 PPR points to QB1s, -15% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 20 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.