QBs vs Washington Commanders
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Jalen Hurts | 14 | 25 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 24.7 |
| Average | 14.0 | 25.0 | 203.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 24.7 | ||
| Median | 14.0 | 25.0 | 203.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 24.7 | ||
| High | 14 | 25 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 24.7 | ||
| Low | 14 | 25 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 24.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Dak Prescott
Nobody knows which slot Dak Prescott will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 18.9 points for Dak Prescott if playing as a QB1. Dak Prescott has averaged 14.4 over 1 game, and the Commanders have given up 24.7 to QB1s (+42% vs the league average of 17.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Dak Prescott scored: Wk 1 14.4. Average 14.4; weighted toward recent games it is 17.1.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Commanders allowed 24.7 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.4, so that is +42%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +11% adjustment (x1.11).
4. Result. 17.1 x 1.11 = 18.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Dak Prescott is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (18.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.3 points, leaning on Dak Prescott's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 19.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- QB1s have averaged 203.0 passing yards, 3.0 passing TDs and 46.0 rushing yards against the Commanders across 1 game.
- The Commanders allow 24.7 PPR points to QB1s, +42% versus the league average of 17.4 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Dak Prescott averages 22.1 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 22.9) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Commanders have allowed 27.2 points to QB1s over 2 games (+61% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +24% adjustment.
- Last season's average (18.5) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 25.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Dak Prescott's stats vs the Commanders
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Dak Prescott has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Dak Prescott will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Dak Prescott's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Dak Prescott usually produces.
Projected is Dak Prescott's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 22 | 34 | 175 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 14.4 |
| 2 | WAS | 26 | 31 | 279 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 29.8 |
| Prescott avg | 24.0 | 32.5 | 227.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 22.1 | |
| Commanders QB1 avg | 14.0 | 25.0 | 203.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 24.7 | |
| Difference | -10.0 | -7.5 | -24.0 | +0.0 | -0.5 | +4.0 | +26.0 | +0.0 | +2.6 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 26.5 | 35.9 | 250.9 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 22.1 | 0.0 | 18.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Prescott averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.