QBs vs Washington Commanders
As of Week 8 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Jalen Hurts | 14 | 25 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 24.7 |
| 2 |  DAL | Dak Prescott | 26 | 31 | 279 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 29.8 |
| Average | 20.0 | 28.0 | 241.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 27.2 | ||
| Median | 20.0 | 28.0 | 241.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 27.2 | ||
| High | 26 | 31 | 279 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 29.8 | ||
| Low | 14 | 25 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 24.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Jalen Hurts
Nobody knows which slot Jalen Hurts will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 24.1 points for Jalen Hurts if playing as a QB1. Jalen Hurts has averaged 20.4 over 2 games, and the Commanders have given up 27.2 to QB1s (+61% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jalen Hurts scored: Wk 1 24.7, Wk 2 16.2. Average 20.4; weighted toward recent games it is 19.4.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Commanders allowed 27.2 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is +61%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +24% adjustment (x1.24).
4. Result. 19.4 x 1.24 = 24.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jalen Hurts is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (24.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 14.5 points, leaning on Jalen Hurts's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 24.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- QB1s have averaged 241.0 passing yards, 3.5 passing TDs and 36.0 rushing yards against the Commanders across 2 games.
- The Commanders allow 27.2 PPR points to QB1s, +61% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 2 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 24.7 to 29.8 (median 27.2).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 200 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Jalen Hurts averages 20.4 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 20.0) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Commanders have allowed 27.2 points to QB1s over 2 games (+61% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +24% adjustment.
- Last season's average (18.8) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 24.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Jalen Hurts's stats vs the Commanders
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jalen Hurts has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jalen Hurts will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jalen Hurts's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jalen Hurts usually produces.
Projected is Jalen Hurts's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 14 | 25 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 24.7 |
| 2 | TEN | 26 | 37 | 264 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 16.2 |
| Hurts avg | 20.0 | 31.0 | 233.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 20.4 | |
| Commanders QB1 avg | 20.0 | 28.0 | 241.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 27.2 | |
| Difference | +0.0 | -3.0 | +7.5 | +1.0 | -1.0 | -0.5 | +5.0 | +0.0 | +6.8 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 24.9 | 38.6 | 290.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 7.5 | 38.6 | 0.0 | 24.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Hurts averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.