RBs vs Indianapolis Colts
As of Week 8 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | RB1 | 24 | 144 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| Justice Hill | RB2 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3.8 | ||
| 2 |  KC | Kenneth Walker III | RB1 | 24 | 117 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 23.8 |
| Emmett Johnson | RB2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 5.5 | ||
| Average | 14.0 | 73.5 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 27.5 | 0.0 | 17.1 | |||
| Median | 15.0 | 67.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 19.5 | 0.0 | 14.7 | |||
| High | 24 | 144 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 35.3 | |||
| Low | 2 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3.8 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Ameer Abdullah
Nobody knows which slot Ameer Abdullah will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 3.1 points for Ameer Abdullah if playing as a RB2. Ameer Abdullah has averaged 3.3 over 2 games, and the Colts have given up 4.7 to RB2s (-2% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ameer Abdullah scored: Wk 1 4.2, Wk 2 2.3. Average 3.3; weighted toward recent games it is 3.2.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Colts allowed 4.7 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is -2%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -1% adjustment (x0.99).
4. Result. 3.2 x 0.99 = 3.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ameer Abdullah is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.9 points, leaning on Ameer Abdullah's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- all RBs have averaged 14.0 carries, 73.5 rushing yards and 2.5 receptions per player-game against the Colts across 2 games.
- The Colts allow 34.2 PPR points to the position per game, +62% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 2 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Derrick Henry (35.3 pts, 24 car, 144 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 17.1 vs 11.0; car 14.0 vs 10.7; rush yds 73.5 vs 50.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Kenneth Walker III (23.8 pts, 24 car, 117 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 17.1 vs 14.9; car 14.0 vs 10.7; rush yds 73.5 vs 59.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 4 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.8 to 35.3 (median 14.7).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 1 of 4 player-games (25%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Ameer Abdullah usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Ameer Abdullah averages 3.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 3.1) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Colts have allowed 4.7 points to RB2s over 2 games (-2% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -1% adjustment.
- Last season's average (3.2) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 3.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Ameer Abdullah's stats vs the Colts
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ameer Abdullah has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ameer Abdullah will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ameer Abdullah's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ameer Abdullah usually produces.
Projected is Ameer Abdullah's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 4 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.2 |
| 2 | DEN | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Abdullah avg | 3.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | |
| Colts All avg | 14.0 | 73.5 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 27.5 | 0.0 | 17.1 | |
| Difference | +10.5 | +52.0 | +0.8 | +2.5 | +1.5 | +26.5 | +0.0 | +13.8 | |
| Projected | 3.5 | 21.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Abdullah averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.