RBs vs Miami Dolphins

As of Week 8 · through 2 games · PPR

Comparing

Lan Larison vs the Dolphins

Projection 2.5 pts · 1 game played this season

Sit

Showing every RB who had a role in each game.

Pts / game allowed

31.7

to all RBs

Rank

of 32 (1 = most allowed)

vs League

+51%

lg avg 21.0

Wk	Team	Player	Slot	Car	RuYd	RuTD	Tgt	Rec	ReYd	ReTD	FPts
1	LV	Ashton Jeanty	RB1	23	102	0	6	6	45	2	32.7
		Mike Washington Jr.	RB2	7	41	0	0	0	0	0	4.1
2	SF	Christian McCaffrey	RB1	10	23	2	4	4	43	0	22.6
		Kaelon Black	RB2	7	25	0	0	0	0	0	2.5
		Jordan James	RB3	4	15	0	0	0	0	0	1.5
Average				10.2	41.2	0.4	2.0	2.0	17.6	0.4	12.7
Median				7.0	25.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.1
High				23	102	2	6	6	45	2	32.7
Low				4	15	0	0	0	0	0	1.5

Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.

Prediction for Lan Larison

Nobody knows which slot Lan Larison will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Dolphins.

If Lan Larison plays as

2.5

projected PPR points

I predict about 2.5 points for Lan Larison if playing as a RB2. Lan Larison has averaged 2.9 over 1 game, and the Dolphins have given up 3.3 to RB2s (-31% vs the league average of 4.8).

How this projection is built

1. The player. Lan Larison scored: Wk 1 2.9. Average 2.9; weighted toward recent games it is 2.9.

2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Dolphins allowed 3.3 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is -31%.

3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -12% adjustment (x0.88).

4. Result. 2.9 x 0.88 = 2.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.

It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.

Chance to score

Type a point total to see how likely Lan Larison is to reach it as a RB2.

+ pts

32%

chance of 3+ PPR points

Why this percentage?

The projection (2.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.5 points, leaning on Lan Larison's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).

Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.

With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.

Insights

all RBs have averaged 10.2 carries, 41.2 rushing yards and 2.0 receptions per player-game against the Dolphins across 2 games.
The Dolphins allow 31.7 PPR points to the position per game, +51% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
Outlier: Week 1, Ashton Jeanty (32.7 pts, 23 car, 102 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.7 vs 7.7; car 10.2 vs 7.0; rush yds 41.2 vs 26.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
Outlier: Week 2, Jordan James (1.5 pts, 4 car) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.7 vs 15.5; car 10.2 vs 11.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
2 of 5 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.5 to 32.7 (median 4.1).
all RBs scored a touchdown in 2 of 5 player-games (40%).
Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.

Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.

What do these columns mean?

Wk: Week of the season
Tgt: Targets (passes thrown to the player)
Rec: Receptions
ReYd: Receiving yards
ReTD: Receiving touchdowns
Car: Carries (rushing attempts)
RuYd: Rushing yards
RuTD: Rushing touchdowns
Cmp / Att: Completions and pass attempts
PaYd / PaTD: Passing yards and touchdowns
INT: Interceptions thrown
FGM / FGA: Field goals made and attempted
FPts: Fantasy points in your scoring format
Sck / TO: Defense: sacks and takeaways
PA: Points allowed by a defense
G: Games in the sample
vs Lg: Percent above or below the league average

Start / Sit · Lan Larison

Sit2.5 proj pts

Low confidence

Lan Larison usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.

Lan Larison averages 2.9 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 2.9) and has played as the team's RB2.
The Dolphins have allowed 3.3 points to RB2s over 2 games (-31% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -12% adjustment.
Projection: 2.5 points.
For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.

Lan Larison's stats vs the Dolphins

Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Dolphins, plus a projection for this game.

What is this table?

Rows at the top are every game Lan Larison has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.

Compare against picks which group of Dolphins opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Lan Larison will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.

Dolphins avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Lan Larison's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Lan Larison usually produces.

Projected is Lan Larison's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Dolphins were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.

Compare against

Wk	Opp	Car	RuYd	RuTD	Tgt	Rec	ReYd	ReTD	FPts
1	SEA	0	0	0	2	2	9	0	2.9
Larison avg		0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	9.0	0.0	2.9
Dolphins All avg		10.2	41.2	0.4	2.0	2.0	17.6	0.4	12.7
Difference		+10.2	+41.2	+0.4	+0.0	+0.0	+8.6	+0.4	+9.8
Projected		0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8	1.8	7.9	0.0	2.5

Difference is what the defense allows minus what Larison averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.