RBs vs Minnesota Vikings

As of Week 4 · through 2 games · PPR

Comparing

Jaylen Wright vs the Vikings

Projection 3.1 pts · 2 games played this season

Sit

RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Vikings in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.

RB1 avg pts

8.3

PPR per game

Rank

of 32 (1 = most allowed)

vs League

-47%

lg avg 15.7

Wk	Team	Player	Car	RuYd	RuTD	Tgt	Rec	ReYd	ReTD	FPts
1	GB	MarShawn Lloyd	13	37	0	1	0	0	0	3.7
2	CHI	D'Andre Swift	16	45	0	5	5	54	0	12.9
Average			14.5	41.0	0.0	3.0	2.5	27.0	0.0	8.3
Median			14.5	41.0	0.0	3.0	2.5	27.0	0.0	8.3
High			16	45	0	5	5	54	0	12.9
Low			13	37	0	1	0	0	0	3.7

Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.

Prediction for Jaylen Wright

Nobody knows which slot Jaylen Wright will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Vikings.

If Jaylen Wright plays as

3.1

projected PPR points

I predict about 3.1 points for Jaylen Wright if playing as a RB2. Jaylen Wright has averaged 0.5 over 2 games, and the Vikings have given up 5.3 to RB2s (+13% vs the league average of 4.8).

How this projection is built

1. The player. Jaylen Wright scored: Wk 1 -0.1, Wk 2 1.1. Average 0.5; weighted toward recent games it is 3.0.

2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Vikings allowed 5.3 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is +13%.

3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +5% adjustment (x1.05).

4. Result. 3.0 x 1.05 = 3.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.

It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.

Chance to score

Type a point total to see how likely Jaylen Wright is to reach it as a RB2.

+ pts

44%

chance of 3+ PPR points

Why this percentage?

The projection (3.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.9 points, leaning on Jaylen Wright's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).

Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.

With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.

Insights

RB1s have averaged 14.5 carries, 41.0 rushing yards and 2.5 receptions against the Vikings across 2 games.
The Vikings allow 8.3 PPR points to RB1s, -47% versus the league average of 15.7 (ranked 31 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.7 to 12.9 (median 8.3).
Every RB1 in the sample cleared 30 rushing yards.
RB1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.

Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.

What do these columns mean?

Wk: Week of the season
Tgt: Targets (passes thrown to the player)
Rec: Receptions
ReYd: Receiving yards
ReTD: Receiving touchdowns
Car: Carries (rushing attempts)
RuYd: Rushing yards
RuTD: Rushing touchdowns
Cmp / Att: Completions and pass attempts
PaYd / PaTD: Passing yards and touchdowns
INT: Interceptions thrown
FGM / FGA: Field goals made and attempted
FPts: Fantasy points in your scoring format
Sck / TO: Defense: sacks and takeaways
PA: Points allowed by a defense
G: Games in the sample
vs Lg: Percent above or below the league average

Start / Sit · Jaylen Wright

Sit3.1 proj pts

Medium confidence

Jaylen Wright usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.

Jaylen Wright averages 0.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 0.6) and has played as the team's RB2.
The Vikings have allowed 5.3 points to RB2s over 2 games (+13% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +5% adjustment.
Last season's average (5.4) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
Projection: 3.1 points.
For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.

Jaylen Wright's stats vs the Vikings

Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Vikings, plus a projection for this game.

What is this table?

Rows at the top are every game Jaylen Wright has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.

Compare against picks which group of Vikings opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaylen Wright will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.

Vikings avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaylen Wright's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaylen Wright usually produces.

Projected is Jaylen Wright's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Vikings were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.

Compare against

Wk	Opp	Car	RuYd	RuTD	Tgt	Rec	ReYd	ReTD	FPts
1	LV	1	-1	0	0	0	0	0	-0.1
2	SF	2	11	0	0	0	0	0	1.1
Wright avg		1.5	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5
Vikings RB1 avg		14.5	41.0	0.0	3.0	2.5	27.0	0.0	8.3
Difference		+13.0	+36.0	+0.0	+3.0	+2.5	+27.0	+0.0	+7.8
Projected as RB1		1.2	4.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.4

Difference is what the defense allows minus what Wright averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.