RBs vs New Orleans Saints
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Saints in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 33.6 |
| Average | 29.0 | 156.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 33.6 | ||
| Median | 29.0 | 156.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 33.6 | ||
| High | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 33.6 | ||
| Low | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 33.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Derrick Henry
Nobody knows which slot Derrick Henry will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 28.0 points for Derrick Henry if playing as a RB1. Derrick Henry has averaged 35.3 over 1 game, and the Saints have given up 33.6 to RB1s (+92% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Derrick Henry scored: Wk 1 35.3. Average 35.3; weighted toward recent games it is 22.7.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Saints allowed 33.6 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is +92%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +23% adjustment (x1.23).
4. Result. 22.7 x 1.23 = 28.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Derrick Henry is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (28.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 16.8 points, leaning on Derrick Henry's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 28.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- RB1s have averaged 29.0 carries, 156.0 rushing yards and 5.0 receptions against the Saints across 1 game.
- The Saints allow 33.6 PPR points to RB1s, +92% versus the league average of 17.5 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Derrick Henry averages 26.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 25.5) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Saints have allowed 25.6 points to RB1s over 2 games (+64% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +26% adjustment.
- Last season's average (16.4) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 26.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Derrick Henry's stats vs the Saints
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Derrick Henry has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Derrick Henry will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Derrick Henry's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Derrick Henry usually produces.
Projected is Derrick Henry's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 24 | 144 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 2 | NO | 16 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 17.7 |
| Henry avg | 20.0 | 106.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 26.5 | |
| Saints RB1 avg | 29.0 | 156.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 33.6 | |
| Difference | +9.0 | +50.0 | +0.0 | +3.0 | +3.0 | +11.0 | +0.0 | +7.1 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 24.6 | 130.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 23.4 | 0.0 | 28.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Henry averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.