RBs vs New Orleans Saints
As of Week 18 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB1 | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 33.6 |
| Sione Vaki | RB2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.8 | ||
| 2 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | RB1 | 16 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 17.7 |
| Justice Hill | RB2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 3.8 | ||
| Average | 12.3 | 59.3 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 14.5 | |||
| Median | 9.0 | 37.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 15.5 | 0.0 | 10.8 | |||
| High | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 33.6 | |||
| Low | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.8 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Kenny Gainwell
Nobody knows which slot Kenny Gainwell will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 7.4 points for Kenny Gainwell if playing as a RB2. Kenny Gainwell has averaged 3.6 over 2 games, and the Saints have given up 3.3 to RB2s (-31% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Kenny Gainwell scored: Wk 1 2.8, Wk 2 4.5. Average 3.6; weighted toward recent games it is 8.4.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Saints allowed 3.3 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is -31%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -12% adjustment (x0.88).
4. Result. 8.4 x 0.88 = 7.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Kenny Gainwell is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.4 points, leaning on Kenny Gainwell's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- all RBs have averaged 12.3 carries, 59.3 rushing yards and 2.8 receptions per player-game against the Saints across 2 games.
- The Saints allow 28.9 PPR points to the position per game, +38% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 6 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Jahmyr Gibbs (33.6 pts, 29 car, 156 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 14.5 vs 8.1; car 12.3 vs 6.7; rush yds 59.3 vs 27.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Justice Hill (3.8 pts, 2 car, 6 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 14.5 vs 18.0; car 12.3 vs 15.7; rush yds 59.3 vs 77.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 4 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.8 to 33.6 (median 10.8).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 2 of 4 player-games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Kenny Gainwell usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Kenny Gainwell averages 3.6 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 3.7) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Saints have allowed 3.3 points to RB2s over 2 games (-31% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -12% adjustment.
- Last season's average (13.0) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 7.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Kenny Gainwell's stats vs the Saints
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Kenny Gainwell has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Kenny Gainwell will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Kenny Gainwell's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Kenny Gainwell usually produces.
Projected is Kenny Gainwell's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2.8 |
| 2 | CLE | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 4.5 |
| Gainwell avg | 3.5 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | |
| Saints All avg | 12.3 | 59.3 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 14.5 | |
| Difference | +8.8 | +46.8 | +0.8 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +14.0 | +0.0 | +10.8 | |
| Projected | 3.1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 7.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Gainwell averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.