RBs vs Tennessee Titans
As of Week 16 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYJ | Breece Hall | RB1 | 22 | 102 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 19.8 |
| Braelon Allen | RB2 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 | ||
| 2 |  PHI | Tank Bigsby | RB1 | 13 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11.8 |
| Will Shipley | RB2 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4.9 | ||
| Saquon Barkley | RB3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3.0 | ||
| Average | 11.2 | 41.6 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 8.7 | |||
| Median | 10.0 | 33.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 4.9 | |||
| High | 22 | 102 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 19.8 | |||
| Low | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Ashton Jeanty
Nobody knows which slot Ashton Jeanty will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Titans.
I predict about 17.4 points for Ashton Jeanty if playing as a RB1. Ashton Jeanty has averaged 21.5 over 2 games, and the Titans have given up 15.8 to RB1s (+1% vs the league average of 15.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ashton Jeanty scored: Wk 1 32.7, Wk 2 10.3. Average 21.5; weighted toward recent games it is 17.3.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Titans allowed 15.8 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.7, so that is +1%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +0% adjustment (x1.00).
4. Result. 17.3 x 1.00 = 17.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ashton Jeanty is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.4 points, leaning on Ashton Jeanty's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- all RBs have averaged 11.2 carries, 41.6 rushing yards and 1.4 receptions per player-game against the Titans across 2 games.
- The Titans allow 21.8 PPR points to the position per game, +3% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 14 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Breece Hall (19.8 pts, 22 car, 102 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.7 vs 5.9; car 11.2 vs 8.5; rush yds 41.6 vs 26.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Saquon Barkley (3.0 pts, 4 car, 9 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.7 vs 10.1; car 11.2 vs 13.0; rush yds 41.6 vs 49.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 5 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.0 to 19.8 (median 4.9).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 2 of 5 player-games (40%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Ashton Jeanty usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Ashton Jeanty averages 21.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 20.3) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Titans have allowed 15.8 points to RB1s over 2 games (+1% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +0% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.4) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 17.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Ashton Jeanty's stats vs the Titans
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Titans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ashton Jeanty has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Titans opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ashton Jeanty will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Titans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ashton Jeanty's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ashton Jeanty usually produces.
Projected is Ashton Jeanty's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Titans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 23 | 102 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 45 | 2 | 32.7 |
| 2 | LAC | 21 | 48 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 10.3 |
| Jeanty avg | 22.0 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 30.0 | 1.0 | 21.5 | |
| Titans All avg | 11.2 | 41.6 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 8.7 | |
| Difference | -10.8 | -33.4 | +0.4 | -4.7 | -3.6 | -22.6 | -1.0 | -12.8 | |
| Projected | 22.1 | 75.3 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 30.1 | 1.0 | 17.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jeanty averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.