RBs vs Washington Commanders
As of Week 4 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Saquon Barkley | RB1 | 15 | 83 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 9.0 |
| Will Shipley | RB2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.2 | ||
| Tank Bigsby | RB3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | ||
| 2 |  DAL | Javonte Williams | RB1 | 12 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8.0 |
| Emari Demercado | RB2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | ||
| Hunter Luepke | RB3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | ||
| Average | 5.7 | 21.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |||
| Median | 2.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | |||
| High | 15 | 83 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 9.0 | |||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0.1 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Seth McGowan
Nobody knows which slot Seth McGowan will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 0.3 points for Seth McGowan if playing as a RB2. Seth McGowan has averaged 0.5 over 2 games, and the Commanders have given up 1.5 to RB2s (-68% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Seth McGowan scored: Wk 1 1.0, Wk 2 0.0. Average 0.5; weighted toward recent games it is 0.4.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Commanders allowed 1.5 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is -68%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -27% adjustment (x0.73).
4. Result. 0.4 x 0.73 = 0.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Seth McGowan is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (0.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 0.2 points, leaning on Seth McGowan's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 0.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- all RBs have averaged 5.7 carries, 21.5 rushing yards and 0.8 receptions per player-game against the Commanders across 2 games.
- The Commanders allow 10.2 PPR points to the position per game, -52% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 32 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Saquon Barkley (9.0 pts, 15 car, 83 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 3.4 vs 2.3; car 5.7 vs 3.8; rush yds 21.5 vs 9.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Javonte Williams (12 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 5.7 vs 4.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.1 to 9.0 (median 1.5).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 0 of 6 player-games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Seth McGowan usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Seth McGowan averages 0.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 0.4) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Commanders have allowed 1.5 points to RB2s over 2 games (-68% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -27% adjustment.
- Projection: 0.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Seth McGowan's stats vs the Commanders
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Seth McGowan has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Seth McGowan will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Seth McGowan's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Seth McGowan usually produces.
Projected is Seth McGowan's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 |
| 2 | KC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| McGowan avg | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | |
| Commanders All avg | 5.7 | 21.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |
| Difference | +4.7 | +21.5 | +0.0 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +4.2 | +0.0 | +2.9 | |
| Projected | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what McGowan averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.