TEs vs Detroit Lions
As of Week 16 · through 2 games · PPR
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Lions in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NO | Juwan Johnson | 7 | 3 | 54 | 1 | 14.4 |
| 2 |  BUF | Dalton Kincaid | 8 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 22.5 |
| Average | 7.5 | 5.0 | 74.5 | 1.0 | 18.4 | ||
| Median | 7.5 | 5.0 | 74.5 | 1.0 | 18.4 | ||
| High | 8 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 22.5 | ||
| Low | 7 | 3 | 54 | 1 | 14.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Theo Johnson
Nobody knows which slot Theo Johnson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Lions.
I predict about 8.2 points for Theo Johnson if playing as a TE1. Theo Johnson has averaged 1.9 over 1 game, and the Lions have given up 18.4 to TE1s (+79% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Theo Johnson scored: Wk 1 1.9. Average 1.9; weighted toward recent games it is 6.3.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Lions allowed 18.4 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +79%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 6.3 x 1.30 = 8.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Theo Johnson is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (8.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.9 points, leaning on Theo Johnson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 8.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- TE1s have averaged 5.0 receptions, 74.5 receiving yards and 1.0 receiving TDs against the Lions across 2 games.
- The Lions allow 18.4 PPR points to TE1s, +79% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 2 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 14.4 to 22.5 (median 18.4).
- Every TE1 in the sample cleared 50 receiving yards.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Theo Johnson averages 1.9 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 1.9) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Lions have allowed 18.4 points to TE1s over 2 games (+79% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +30% adjustment.
- Last season's average (8.5) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 8.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Theo Johnson's stats vs the Lions
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Lions, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Theo Johnson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Lions opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Theo Johnson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Lions avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Theo Johnson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Theo Johnson usually produces.
Projected is Theo Johnson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Lions were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Johnson avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | |
| Lions TE1 avg | 7.5 | 5.0 | 74.5 | 1.0 | 18.4 | |
| Difference | +6.5 | +4.0 | +65.5 | +1.0 | +16.6 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 8.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Johnson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.