WRs vs Atlanta Falcons
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Michael Pittman | WR1 | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 | 8.8 |
| DK Metcalf | WR2 | 10 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 8.0 | ||
| Roman Wilson | WR3 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 | ||
| Average | 6.3 | 3.3 | 41.3 | 0.0 | 7.5 | |||
| Median | 6.0 | 3.0 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | |||
| High | 10 | 4 | 58 | 0 | 8.8 | |||
| Low | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Tetairoa McMillan
Nobody knows which slot Tetairoa McMillan will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 11.8 points for Tetairoa McMillan if playing as a WR2. Tetairoa McMillan has averaged 10.5 over 1 game, and the Falcons have given up 8.0 to WR2s (-2% vs the league average of 8.2).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Tetairoa McMillan scored: Wk 1 10.5. Average 10.5; weighted toward recent games it is 11.9.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Falcons allowed 8.0 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.2, so that is -2%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -1% adjustment (x0.99).
4. Result. 11.9 x 0.99 = 11.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Tetairoa McMillan is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.1 points, leaning on Tetairoa McMillan's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- top-3 WRs have averaged 3.3 receptions, 41.3 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs per player-game against the Falcons across 1 game.
- The Falcons allow 22.4 PPR points to the position per game, -24% versus the league average of 29.6 (ranked 24 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 3 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.6 to 8.8 (median 8.0).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 player-games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Tetairoa McMillan usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Tetairoa McMillan averages 12.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 13.1) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Falcons have allowed 11.3 points to WR2s over 2 games (+36% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +15% adjustment.
- Last season's average (12.6) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 14.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Tetairoa McMillan's stats vs the Falcons
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Tetairoa McMillan has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Tetairoa McMillan will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Tetairoa McMillan's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Tetairoa McMillan usually produces.
Projected is Tetairoa McMillan's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 8 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 2 | ATL | 10 | 5 | 101 | 0 | 15.1 |
| McMillan avg | 9.0 | 5.0 | 88.0 | 0.0 | 12.8 | |
| Falcons Top 3 avg | 6.3 | 3.3 | 41.3 | 0.0 | 7.5 | |
| Difference | -2.7 | -1.7 | -46.7 | +0.0 | -5.3 | |
| Projected | 10.3 | 5.7 | 100.8 | 0.0 | 14.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what McMillan averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.