WRs vs Buffalo Bills
As of Week 8 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | Nico Collins | WR1 | 10 | 7 | 75 | 1 | 21.2 |
| Jaylin Noel | WR2 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 7.3 | ||
| Xavier Hutchinson | WR3 | 6 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 | ||
| 2 |  DET | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR1 | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 |
| Jameson Williams | WR2 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 5.3 | ||
| Isaac TeSlaa | WR3 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 4.6 | ||
| Average | 6.7 | 4.2 | 60.2 | 0.5 | 13.3 | |||
| Median | 5.5 | 2.5 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | |||
| High | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 | |||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 4.6 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Zay Flowers should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Zay Flowers has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Zay Flowers will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Zay Flowers's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Zay Flowers usually produces.
Projected is Zay Flowers's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 6 | 5 | 150 | 1 | 26.0 |
| Flowers avg | 6.0 | 5.0 | 150.0 | 1.0 | 26.0 | |
| Bills Top 3 avg | 6.7 | 4.2 | 60.2 | 0.5 | 13.3 | |
| Difference | +0.7 | -0.8 | -89.8 | -0.5 | -12.7 | |
| Projected | 7.6 | 6.3 | 189.8 | 1.3 | 23.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Flowers averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Zay FlowersMedium confidence · 23.0 proj ptsOut
Zay Flowers usually plays as the team's WR1, so the verdict uses the WR1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Zay Flowers averages 26.0 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 26.0) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Bills have allowed 28.2 points to WR1s over 2 games (+66% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +27% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.3) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Out. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 23.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreZay Flowers vs the Bills
Prediction for Zay Flowers
Nobody knows which slot Zay Flowers will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 23.0 points for Zay Flowers if playing as a WR1. Zay Flowers has averaged 26.0 over 1 game, and the Bills have given up 28.2 to WR1s (+66% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Zay Flowers scored: Wk 1 26.0. Average 26.0; weighted toward recent games it is 18.2.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Bills allowed 28.2 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is +66%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +27% adjustment (x1.27).
4. Result. 18.2 x 1.27 = 23.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Zay Flowers is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (23.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 13.8 points, leaning on Zay Flowers's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 23.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- top-3 WRs have averaged 4.2 receptions, 60.2 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs per player-game against the Bills across 2 games.
- The Bills allow 39.9 PPR points to the position per game, +34% versus the league average of 29.8 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Amon-Ra St. Brown (35.2 pts, 9 rec, 142 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.3 vs 8.9; rec 4.2 vs 3.2; yds 60.2 vs 43.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Nico Collins (21.2 pts, 7 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.3 vs 11.7; rec 4.2 vs 3.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.6 to 35.2 (median 6.8).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 2 of 6 player-games (33%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.