WRs vs Buffalo Bills
As of Week 11 · through 2 games · PPR
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | Jaylin Noel | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 2 |  DET | Jameson Williams | 4 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 5.3 |
| Average | 3.0 | 2.0 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 2.0 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | ||
| High | 4 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 7.3 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 5.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Malik Washington
Nobody knows which slot Malik Washington will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 6.6 points for Malik Washington if playing as a WR2. Malik Washington has averaged 7.5 over 2 games, and the Bills have given up 6.3 to WR2s (-24% vs the league average of 8.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Malik Washington scored: Wk 1 6.3, Wk 2 8.7. Average 7.5; weighted toward recent games it is 7.2.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Bills allowed 6.3 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.3, so that is -24%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -10% adjustment (x0.90).
4. Result. 7.2 x 0.90 = 6.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Malik Washington is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (6.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.9 points, leaning on Malik Washington's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- WR2s have averaged 2.0 receptions, 43.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Bills across 2 games.
- The Bills allow 6.3 PPR points to WR2s, -24% versus the league average of 8.3 (ranked 21 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.3 to 7.3 (median 6.3).
- Every WR2 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Malik Washington averages 7.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 7.6) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Bills have allowed 6.3 points to WR2s over 2 games (-24% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -10% adjustment.
- Last season's average (6.9) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 6.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Malik Washington's stats vs the Bills
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Malik Washington has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Malik Washington will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Malik Washington's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Malik Washington usually produces.
Projected is Malik Washington's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 8 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 6.3 |
| 2 | SF | 5 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 8.7 |
| Washington avg | 6.5 | 3.5 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 7.5 | |
| Bills WR2 avg | 3.0 | 2.0 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | |
| Difference | -3.5 | -1.5 | -5.0 | +0.0 | -1.2 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 43.4 | 0.0 | 6.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Washington averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.