WRs vs Cincinnati Bengals
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TB | Emeka Egbuka | WR1 | 6 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 11.3 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | WR2 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 8.3 | ||
| Ted Hurst III | WR3 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 6.6 | ||
| Average | 4.3 | 4.0 | 46.3 | 0.0 | 8.7 | |||
| Median | 4.0 | 4.0 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 8.3 | |||
| High | 6 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 11.3 | |||
| Low | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 6.6 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Nico Collins
Nobody knows which slot Nico Collins will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bengals.
I predict about 15.7 points for Nico Collins if playing as a WR1. Nico Collins has averaged 21.2 over 1 game, and the Bengals have given up 11.3 to WR1s (-34% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Nico Collins scored: Wk 1 21.2. Average 21.2; weighted toward recent games it is 17.1.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Bengals allowed 11.3 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is -34%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -8% adjustment (x0.92).
4. Result. 17.1 x 0.92 = 15.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Nico Collins is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.4 points, leaning on Nico Collins's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- top-3 WRs have averaged 4.0 receptions, 46.3 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs per player-game against the Bengals across 1 game.
- The Bengals allow 26.2 PPR points to the position per game, -11% versus the league average of 29.6 (ranked 18 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 3 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.6 to 11.3 (median 8.3).
- Every player-game in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 player-games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Nico Collins usually plays as the team's WR1, so the verdict uses the WR1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Nico Collins averages 21.2 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 21.2) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Bengals have allowed 9.0 points to WR1s over 2 games (-47% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -19% adjustment.
- Last season's average (15.1) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Out. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 13.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Nico Collins's stats vs the Bengals
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bengals, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Nico Collins has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bengals opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Nico Collins will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bengals avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Nico Collins's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Nico Collins usually produces.
Projected is Nico Collins's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bengals were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 10 | 7 | 75 | 1 | 21.2 |
| Collins avg | 10.0 | 7.0 | 75.0 | 1.0 | 21.2 | |
| Bengals Top 3 avg | 4.3 | 4.0 | 46.3 | 0.0 | 8.7 | |
| Difference | -5.7 | -3.0 | -28.7 | -1.0 | -12.5 | |
| Projected | 8.1 | 5.7 | 60.9 | 0.8 | 13.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Collins averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.