WRs vs Green Bay Packers
As of Week 9 · through 2 games · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Packers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIN | Justin Jefferson | 9 | 8 | 92 | 2 | 31.2 |
| 2 |  NYJ | Garrett Wilson | 7 | 5 | 57 | 1 | 16.7 |
| Average | 8.0 | 6.5 | 74.5 | 1.5 | 23.9 | ||
| Median | 8.0 | 6.5 | 74.5 | 1.5 | 23.9 | ||
| High | 9 | 8 | 92 | 2 | 31.2 | ||
| Low | 7 | 5 | 57 | 1 | 16.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for A.J. Brown
Nobody knows which slot A.J. Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Packers.
I predict about 12.5 points for A.J. Brown if playing as a WR3. A.J. Brown has averaged 5.6 over 1 game, and the Packers have given up 5.4 to WR3s (+18% vs the league average of 4.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. A.J. Brown scored: Wk 1 5.6. Average 5.6; weighted toward recent games it is 11.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Packers allowed 5.4 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.6, so that is +18%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +7% adjustment (x1.07).
4. Result. 11.7 x 1.07 = 12.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely A.J. Brown is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.5 points, leaning on A.J. Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- WR1s have averaged 6.5 receptions, 74.5 receiving yards and 1.5 receiving TDs against the Packers across 2 games.
- The Packers allow 23.9 PPR points to WR1s, +41% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 16.7 to 31.2 (median 23.9).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 50 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
A.J. Brown usually plays as the team's WR3, so the verdict uses the WR3 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- A.J. Brown averages 5.6 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 5.6) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Packers have allowed 5.4 points to WR3s over 2 games (+18% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +7% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.7) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: IR. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 12.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
A.J. Brown's stats vs the Packers
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Packers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game A.J. Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Packers opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot A.J. Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Packers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus A.J. Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than A.J. Brown usually produces.
Projected is A.J. Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Packers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 4 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 |
| Brown avg | 4.0 | 3.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 5.6 | |
| Packers WR1 avg | 8.0 | 6.5 | 74.5 | 1.5 | 23.9 | |
| Difference | +4.0 | +3.5 | +48.5 | +1.5 | +18.4 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 30.3 | 0.0 | 13.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.