WRs vs Jacksonville Jaguars
As of Week 16 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CLE | Denzel Boston | WR1 | 4 | 2 | 59 | 1 | 13.9 |
| KC Concepcion | WR2 | 5 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 7.8 | ||
| Jerry Jeudy | WR3 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 4.6 | ||
| 2 |  DEN | Jaylen Waddle | WR1 | 10 | 8 | 138 | 0 | 21.8 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR2 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 5.5 | ||
| Troy Franklin | WR3 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 3.7 | ||
| Average | 4.8 | 3.3 | 53.0 | 0.2 | 9.5 | |||
| Median | 4.0 | 2.5 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | |||
| High | 10 | 8 | 138 | 1 | 21.8 | |||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3.7 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for George Pickens
Nobody knows which slot George Pickens will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jaguars.
I predict about 11.7 points for George Pickens if playing as a WR2. George Pickens has averaged 7.9 over 2 games, and the Jaguars have given up 6.7 to WR2s (-20% vs the league average of 8.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. George Pickens scored: Wk 1 5.8, Wk 2 10.0. Average 7.9; weighted toward recent games it is 12.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Jaguars allowed 6.7 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.3, so that is -20%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -8% adjustment (x0.92).
4. Result. 12.7 x 0.92 = 11.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely George Pickens is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.0 points, leaning on George Pickens's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- top-3 WRs have averaged 3.3 receptions, 53.0 receiving yards and 0.2 receiving TDs per player-game against the Jaguars across 2 games.
- The Jaguars allow 28.6 PPR points to the position per game, -4% versus the league average of 29.8 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Jaylen Waddle (21.8 pts, 8 rec, 138 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.5 vs 7.1; rec 3.3 vs 2.4; yds 53.0 vs 36.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Troy Franklin (3.7 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.5 vs 10.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.7 to 21.8 (median 6.7).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 1 of 6 player-games (17%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
George Pickens usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- George Pickens averages 7.9 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 8.1) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Jaguars have allowed 6.7 points to WR2s over 2 games (-20% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -8% adjustment.
- Last season's average (17.2) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 11.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
George Pickens's stats vs the Jaguars
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jaguars, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game George Pickens has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jaguars opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot George Pickens will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jaguars avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus George Pickens's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than George Pickens usually produces.
Projected is George Pickens's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jaguars were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 6 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 2 | WAS | 8 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 10.0 |
| Pickens avg | 7.0 | 4.5 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 7.9 | |
| Jaguars Top 3 avg | 4.8 | 3.3 | 53.0 | 0.2 | 9.5 | |
| Difference | -2.2 | -1.2 | +19.0 | +0.2 | +1.6 | |
| Projected | 6.4 | 4.1 | 31.3 | 0.0 | 11.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Pickens averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.