WRs vs Kansas City Chiefs
As of Week 12 · through 2 games · PPR
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Chiefs in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DEN | Courtland Sutton | 5 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 2 |  IND | Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 3 | 61 | 0 | 9.1 |
| Average | 4.0 | 2.5 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 2.5 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | ||
| High | 5 | 3 | 61 | 0 | 9.1 | ||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Josh Palmer
Nobody knows which slot Josh Palmer will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 6.8 points for Josh Palmer if playing as a WR2. Josh Palmer has averaged 10.9 over 2 games, and the Chiefs have given up 6.1 to WR2s (-26% vs the league average of 8.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Josh Palmer scored: Wk 1 10.4, Wk 2 11.3. Average 10.9; weighted toward recent games it is 7.6.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Chiefs allowed 6.1 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.3, so that is -26%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -11% adjustment (x0.89).
4. Result. 7.6 x 0.89 = 6.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Josh Palmer is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (6.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.1 points, leaning on Josh Palmer's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- WR2s have averaged 2.5 receptions, 36.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Chiefs across 2 games.
- The Chiefs allow 6.1 PPR points to WR2s, -26% versus the league average of 8.3 (ranked 24 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.1 to 9.1 (median 6.1).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Josh Palmer averages 10.9 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 10.9) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Chiefs have allowed 6.1 points to WR2s over 2 games (-26% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -11% adjustment.
- Last season's average (4.4) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 6.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Josh Palmer's stats vs the Chiefs
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Josh Palmer has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Josh Palmer will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Josh Palmer's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Josh Palmer usually produces.
Projected is Josh Palmer's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 2 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 10.4 |
| 2 | DET | 3 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 11.3 |
| Palmer avg | 2.5 | 1.0 | 38.5 | 1.0 | 10.9 | |
| Chiefs WR2 avg | 4.0 | 2.5 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | |
| Difference | +1.5 | +1.5 | -2.5 | -1.0 | -4.8 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 34.4 | 0.9 | 6.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Palmer averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.