WRs vs Miami Dolphins
As of Week 7 · through 2 games · PPR
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Dolphins in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LV | Jalen Nailor | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 2 |  SF | Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Average | 4.5 | 3.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | 3.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | ||
| High | 5 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 6.5 | ||
| Low | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Garrett Wilson
Nobody knows which slot Garrett Wilson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Dolphins.
I predict about 12.3 points for Garrett Wilson if playing as a WR1. Garrett Wilson has averaged 15.3 over 2 games, and the Dolphins have given up 9.9 to WR1s (-42% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Garrett Wilson scored: Wk 1 13.9, Wk 2 16.7. Average 15.3; weighted toward recent games it is 14.8.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Dolphins allowed 9.9 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is -42%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -17% adjustment (x0.83).
4. Result. 14.8 x 0.83 = 12.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Garrett Wilson is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.4 points, leaning on Garrett Wilson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- WR2s have averaged 3.0 receptions, 29.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Dolphins across 2 games.
- The Dolphins allow 6.1 PPR points to WR2s, -26% versus the league average of 8.3 (ranked 25 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.7 to 6.5 (median 6.1).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Garrett Wilson usually plays as the team's WR1, so the verdict uses the WR1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Garrett Wilson averages 15.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 15.5) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Dolphins have allowed 9.9 points to WR1s over 2 games (-42% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -17% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.2) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 12.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Garrett Wilson's stats vs the Dolphins
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Dolphins, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Garrett Wilson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Dolphins opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Garrett Wilson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Dolphins avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Garrett Wilson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Garrett Wilson usually produces.
Projected is Garrett Wilson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Dolphins were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 7 | 6 | 79 | 0 | 13.9 |
| 2 | GB | 7 | 5 | 57 | 1 | 16.7 |
| Wilson avg | 7.0 | 5.5 | 68.0 | 0.5 | 15.3 | |
| Dolphins WR2 avg | 4.5 | 3.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | |
| Difference | -2.5 | -2.5 | -39.0 | -0.5 | -9.2 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 60.8 | 0.4 | 13.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Wilson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.