WRs vs New England Patriots
As of Week 9 · through 8 games · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 |  PIT | Roman Wilson | 6 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 3 |  JAX | Jakobi Meyers | 8 | 7 | 64 | 1 | 19.4 |
| 4 |  BUF | Keon Coleman | 7 | 6 | 116 | 1 | 23.6 |
| 5 |  LV | Tre Tucker | 5 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 6 |  NYJ | Omar Cooper Jr. | 7 | 6 | 103 | 1 | 22.3 |
| 7 |  CHI | Luther Burden III | 4 | 4 | 130 | 1 | 23.7 |
| 8 |  MIA | Malik Washington | 6 | 5 | 40 | 1 | 15.0 |
| Average | 6.8 | 5.6 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 18.2 | ||
| Median | 6.5 | 5.5 | 83.5 | 1.0 | 20.9 | ||
| High | 11 | 8 | 130 | 1 | 26.2 | ||
| Low | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 7.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Matthew Golden should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Matthew Golden has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Matthew Golden will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Matthew Golden's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Matthew Golden usually produces.
Projected is Matthew Golden's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 12 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 2 | NYJ | 6 | 4 | 58 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 3 | ATL | 12 | 5 | 100 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 4 | TB | 7 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 11.7 |
| 5 | CHI | 7 | 6 | 123 | 0 | 20.3 |
| 6 | DAL | 13 | 6 | 104 | 1 | 22.4 |
| 7 | DET | 12 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 9.9 |
| 8 | CAR | 13 | 7 | 79 | 1 | 20.9 |
| Golden avg | 10.3 | 5.4 | 77.4 | 0.5 | 16.4 | |
| Patriots Top 3 avg | 5.2 | 3.6 | 48.3 | 0.4 | 10.7 | |
| Difference | -5.1 | -1.8 | -29.1 | -0.1 | -5.8 | |
| Projected | 11.1 | 5.8 | 84.1 | 0.5 | 16.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Golden averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Matthew GoldenGood confidence · 16.3 proj pts7/10 start
Matthew Golden usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Matthew Golden averages 16.4 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 17.1) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Patriots have allowed 9.8 points to WR2s over 8 games (+12% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +9% adjustment.
- Last season's average (5.0) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -3%: Vegas total 44.5, implied 20.8 points for GB (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (50F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+4%): Opposing starter Marcus Jones (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Carlton Davis III (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+2%): Teammate Christian Watson (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Golden.
- Projection: 16.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMatthew Golden vs the Patriots
Prediction for Matthew Golden
Nobody knows which slot Matthew Golden will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 15.9 points for Matthew Golden if playing as a WR2. Matthew Golden has averaged 16.4 over 8 games, and the Patriots have given up 9.8 to WR2s (+12% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Matthew Golden scored: Wk 1 15.5, Wk 2 9.8, Wk 3 21.0, Wk 4 11.7, Wk 5 20.3, Wk 6 22.4, Wk 7 9.9, Wk 8 20.9. Average 16.4; weighted toward recent games it is 14.7.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Patriots allowed 9.8 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is +12%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +9% adjustment (x1.09).
4. Result. 14.7 x 1.09 = 15.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Matthew Golden is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.4 points, leaning on Matthew Golden's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 5.6 receptions, 80.5 receiving yards and 0.8 receiving TDs against the Patriots across 8 games.
- The Patriots allow 18.2 PPR points to WR1s, +6% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 15 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Roman Wilson (7.8 pts, 28 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 18.2 vs 19.7; yds 80.5 vs 88.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (122 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 80.5 vs 74.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 6 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.5 to 26.2 (median 20.9).
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 8 games (75%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.