WRs vs New England Patriots
As of Week 10 · through 2 games · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 |  PIT | Roman Wilson | 6 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Average | 8.5 | 6.5 | 75.0 | 0.5 | 17.0 | ||
| Median | 8.5 | 6.5 | 75.0 | 0.5 | 17.0 | ||
| High | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 | ||
| Low | 6 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 7.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 25.7 points for Amon-Ra St. Brown if playing as a WR1. Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 32.0 over 2 games, and the Patriots have given up 17.0 to WR1s (+0% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Amon-Ra St. Brown scored: Wk 1 28.7, Wk 2 35.2. Average 32.0; weighted toward recent games it is 25.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Patriots allowed 17.0 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is +0%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +0% adjustment (x1.00).
4. Result. 25.7 x 1.00 = 25.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Amon-Ra St. Brown is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (25.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 15.4 points, leaning on Amon-Ra St. Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 26.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- WR1s have averaged 6.5 receptions, 75.0 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Patriots across 2 games.
- The Patriots allow 17.0 PPR points to WR1s, +0% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.8 to 26.2 (median 17.0).
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Amon-Ra St. Brown averages 32.0 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 32.3) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Patriots have allowed 17.0 points to WR1s over 2 games (+0% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +0% adjustment.
- Last season's average (19.1) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 25.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's stats vs the Patriots
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Amon-Ra St. Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Amon-Ra St. Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Amon-Ra St. Brown usually produces.
Projected is Amon-Ra St. Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 28.7 |
| 2 | BUF | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 |
| Brown avg | 13.5 | 9.5 | 104.5 | 2.0 | 32.0 | |
| Patriots WR1 avg | 8.5 | 6.5 | 75.0 | 0.5 | 17.0 | |
| Difference | -5.0 | -3.0 | -29.5 | -1.5 | -15.0 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 104.6 | 2.0 | 25.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.