WRs vs New England Patriots
As of Week 9 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR1 | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR2 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 5.5 | ||
| Rashid Shaheed | WR3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 | ||
| 2 |  PIT | Roman Wilson | WR1 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Germie Bernard | WR2 | 8 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 | ||
| DK Metcalf | WR3 | 9 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 6.7 | ||
| Average | 6.7 | 4.0 | 41.8 | 0.2 | 9.2 | |||
| Median | 7.0 | 4.0 | 31.5 | 0.0 | 7.1 | |||
| High | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 | |||
| Low | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Christian Watson should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Christian Watson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Christian Watson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Christian Watson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Christian Watson usually produces.
Projected is Christian Watson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 8 | 6 | 147 | 2 | 32.7 |
| 2 | NYJ | 11 | 4 | 41 | 1 | 14.1 |
| Watson avg | 9.5 | 5.0 | 94.0 | 1.5 | 23.4 | |
| Patriots Top 3 avg | 6.7 | 4.0 | 41.8 | 0.2 | 9.2 | |
| Difference | -2.8 | -1.0 | -52.2 | -1.3 | -14.2 | |
| Projected | 9.5 | 5.0 | 94.1 | 1.5 | 17.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Watson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Christian WatsonMedium confidence · 17.8 proj ptsStart
Christian Watson usually plays as the team's WR1, so the verdict uses the WR1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Christian Watson averages 23.4 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 22.4) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Patriots have allowed 17.0 points to WR1s over 2 games (+0% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +0% adjustment.
- Last season's average (13.2) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 17.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreChristian Watson vs the Patriots
Prediction for Christian Watson
Nobody knows which slot Christian Watson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 17.8 points for Christian Watson if playing as a WR1. Christian Watson has averaged 23.4 over 2 games, and the Patriots have given up 17.0 to WR1s (+0% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Christian Watson scored: Wk 1 32.7, Wk 2 14.1. Average 23.4; weighted toward recent games it is 17.8.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Patriots allowed 17.0 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is +0%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +0% adjustment (x1.00).
4. Result. 17.8 x 1.00 = 17.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Christian Watson is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.7 points, leaning on Christian Watson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- top-3 WRs have averaged 4.0 receptions, 41.8 receiving yards and 0.2 receiving TDs per player-game against the Patriots across 2 games.
- The Patriots allow 27.6 PPR points to the position per game, -8% versus the league average of 29.8 (ranked 20 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (26.2 pts, 8 rec, 122 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.2 vs 5.8; rec 4.0 vs 3.2; yds 41.8 vs 25.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Rashid Shaheed (1.4 pts, 1 rec, 4 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.2 vs 10.7; rec 4.0 vs 4.6; yds 41.8 vs 49.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.4 to 26.2 (median 7.1).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 1 of 6 player-games (17%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.