WRs vs New York Jets
As of Week 3 · through 2 games · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Jets in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TEN | Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 2 |  GB | Christian Watson | 11 | 4 | 41 | 1 | 14.1 |
| Average | 8.5 | 4.5 | 39.5 | 0.5 | 11.4 | ||
| Median | 8.5 | 4.5 | 39.5 | 0.5 | 11.4 | ||
| High | 11 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 14.1 | ||
| Low | 6 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 8.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jets.
I predict about 22.3 points for Amon-Ra St. Brown if playing as a WR1. Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 32.0 over 2 games, and the Jets have given up 11.4 to WR1s (-32% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Amon-Ra St. Brown scored: Wk 1 28.7, Wk 2 35.2. Average 32.0; weighted toward recent games it is 25.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Jets allowed 11.4 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is -32%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -13% adjustment (x0.87).
4. Result. 25.7 x 0.87 = 22.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Amon-Ra St. Brown is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (22.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 13.4 points, leaning on Amon-Ra St. Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 22.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- WR1s have averaged 4.5 receptions, 39.5 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Jets across 2 games.
- The Jets allow 11.4 PPR points to WR1s, -32% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 26 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.8 to 14.1 (median 11.4).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Amon-Ra St. Brown averages 32.0 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 32.3) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Jets have allowed 11.4 points to WR1s over 2 games (-32% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -13% adjustment.
- Last season's average (19.1) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +11%: Vegas total 48.5, implied 27.5 points for DET (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Flag: 2 offensive linemen are out (Mahogany, Miller). Protection and run blocking may suffer.
- Projection: 24.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's stats vs the Jets
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jets, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Amon-Ra St. Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jets opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jets avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Amon-Ra St. Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Amon-Ra St. Brown usually produces.
Projected is Amon-Ra St. Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jets were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 28.7 |
| 2 | BUF | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 |
| Brown avg | 13.5 | 9.5 | 104.5 | 2.0 | 32.0 | |
| Jets WR3 avg | 4.5 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 5.2 | |
| Difference | -9.0 | -6.5 | -82.5 | -2.0 | -26.8 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 14.2 | 10.0 | 110.3 | 2.1 | 27.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.