WRs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As of Week 15 · through 2 games · PPR
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Buccaneers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CIN | Dohnte Meyers | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 2 |  CLE | KC Concepcion | 6 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 8.2 |
| Average | 3.5 | 3.5 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Median | 3.5 | 3.5 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | ||
| High | 6 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 8.2 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Devaughn Vele
Nobody knows which slot Devaughn Vele will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Buccaneers.
I predict about 10.0 points for Devaughn Vele if playing as a WR2. Devaughn Vele has averaged 15.6 over 2 games, and the Buccaneers have given up 6.0 to WR2s (-28% vs the league average of 8.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Devaughn Vele scored: Wk 1 19.9, Wk 2 11.4. Average 15.6; weighted toward recent games it is 11.3.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Buccaneers allowed 6.0 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.3, so that is -28%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -11% adjustment (x0.89).
4. Result. 11.3 x 0.89 = 10.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Devaughn Vele is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.0 points, leaning on Devaughn Vele's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- WR2s have averaged 3.5 receptions, 23.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Buccaneers across 2 games.
- The Buccaneers allow 6.0 PPR points to WR2s, -28% versus the league average of 8.3 (ranked 26 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.8 to 8.2 (median 6.0).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Devaughn Vele averages 15.6 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 15.2) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Buccaneers have allowed 6.0 points to WR2s over 2 games (-28% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -11% adjustment.
- Last season's average (7.4) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 10.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Devaughn Vele's stats vs the Buccaneers
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Buccaneers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Devaughn Vele has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Buccaneers opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Devaughn Vele will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Buccaneers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Devaughn Vele's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Devaughn Vele usually produces.
Projected is Devaughn Vele's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Buccaneers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 9 | 7 | 69 | 1 | 19.9 |
| 2 | BAL | 7 | 5 | 64 | 0 | 11.4 |
| Vele avg | 8.0 | 6.0 | 66.5 | 0.5 | 15.6 | |
| Buccaneers WR2 avg | 3.5 | 3.5 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | |
| Difference | -4.5 | -2.5 | -43.5 | -0.5 | -9.6 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 59.2 | 0.4 | 10.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Vele averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.