WRs vs Washington Commanders
As of Week 3 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Dontayvion Wicks | WR1 | 4 | 2 | 73 | 1 | 15.3 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR2 | 6 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 8.3 | ||
| Makai Lemon | WR3 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 2.5 | ||
| 2 |  DAL | CeeDee Lamb | WR1 | 9 | 8 | 153 | 2 | 35.3 |
| George Pickens | WR2 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 10.0 | ||
| Ryan Flournoy | WR3 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 7.3 | ||
| Average | 6.2 | 4.5 | 56.2 | 0.5 | 13.1 | |||
| Median | 6.0 | 4.0 | 46.5 | 0.0 | 9.2 | |||
| High | 9 | 8 | 153 | 2 | 35.3 | |||
| Low | 4 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 2.5 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaxon Smith-Njigba should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaxon Smith-Njigba usually produces.
Projected is Jaxon Smith-Njigba's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 | ARI | 11 | 9 | 155 | 3 | 42.5 |
| Smith-Njigba avg | 11.0 | 8.5 | 138.5 | 2.0 | 34.4 | |
| Commanders Top 3 avg | 6.2 | 4.5 | 56.2 | 0.5 | 13.1 | |
| Difference | -4.8 | -4.0 | -82.3 | -1.5 | -21.2 | |
| Projected | 13.2 | 10.2 | 165.8 | 2.4 | 34.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith-Njigba averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaMedium confidence · 34.1 proj ptsMust Start
Jaxon Smith-Njigba usually plays as the team's WR1, so the verdict uses the WR1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba averages 34.4 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 35.3) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Commanders have allowed 25.3 points to WR1s over 2 games (+49% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +20% adjustment.
- Last season's average (21.2) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -0%: Vegas total 40.5, implied 23.5 points for SEA (league avg 22.6); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (78F, 10 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Nick Cross (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Javon Kinlaw (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 34.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaxon Smith-Njigba vs the Commanders
Prediction for Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Nobody knows which slot Jaxon Smith-Njigba will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 33.8 points for Jaxon Smith-Njigba if playing as a WR1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 34.4 over 2 games, and the Commanders have given up 25.3 to WR1s (+49% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored: Wk 1 26.2, Wk 2 42.5. Average 34.4; weighted toward recent games it is 28.2.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Commanders allowed 25.3 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is +49%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +20% adjustment (x1.20).
4. Result. 28.2 x 1.20 = 33.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaxon Smith-Njigba is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (33.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 20.3 points, leaning on Jaxon Smith-Njigba's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 34.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- top-3 WRs have averaged 4.5 receptions, 56.2 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs per player-game against the Commanders across 2 games.
- The Commanders allow 39.3 PPR points to the position per game, +32% versus the league average of 29.8 (ranked 6 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, CeeDee Lamb (35.3 pts, 8 rec, 153 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.1 vs 8.7; rec 4.5 vs 3.8; yds 56.2 vs 36.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Makai Lemon (2.5 pts, -5 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.1 vs 15.2; yds 56.2 vs 68.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.5 to 35.3 (median 9.2).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 2 of 6 player-games (33%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.