WRs vs Washington Commanders
As of Week 17 · through 2 games · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 2 | 73 | 1 | 15.3 |
| 2 |  DAL | CeeDee Lamb | 9 | 8 | 153 | 2 | 35.3 |
| Average | 6.5 | 5.0 | 113.0 | 1.5 | 25.3 | ||
| Median | 6.5 | 5.0 | 113.0 | 1.5 | 25.3 | ||
| High | 9 | 8 | 153 | 2 | 35.3 | ||
| Low | 4 | 2 | 73 | 1 | 15.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Josh Cameron
Nobody knows which slot Josh Cameron will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 10.3 points for Josh Cameron if playing as a WR3. Josh Cameron has averaged 10.0 over 1 game, and the Commanders have given up 4.9 to WR3s (+7% vs the league average of 4.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Josh Cameron scored: Wk 1 10.0. Average 10.0; weighted toward recent games it is 10.0.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Commanders allowed 4.9 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.6, so that is +7%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +3% adjustment (x1.03).
4. Result. 10.0 x 1.03 = 10.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Josh Cameron is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.2 points, leaning on Josh Cameron's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- WR1s have averaged 5.0 receptions, 113.0 receiving yards and 1.5 receiving TDs against the Commanders across 2 games.
- The Commanders allow 25.3 PPR points to WR1s, +49% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 15.3 to 35.3 (median 25.3).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 70 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
Josh Cameron usually plays as the team's WR3, so the verdict uses the WR3 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Josh Cameron averages 10.0 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 10.0) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Commanders have allowed 4.9 points to WR3s over 2 games (+7% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +3% adjustment.
- Projection: 10.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Josh Cameron's stats vs the Commanders
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Josh Cameron has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Josh Cameron will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Josh Cameron's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Josh Cameron usually produces.
Projected is Josh Cameron's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 10.0 |
| Cameron avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 20.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | |
| Commanders WR1 avg | 6.5 | 5.0 | 113.0 | 1.5 | 25.3 | |
| Difference | +4.5 | +3.0 | +93.0 | +0.5 | +15.3 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 23.9 | 1.2 | 12.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Cameron averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.