Aaron Rodgers
QB
Pittsburgh Steelers
This is how QBs have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Lamar Jackson | 17 | 25 | 324 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 25.0 |
| 2 |  KC | Patrick Mahomes | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 29.0 |
| 3 |  HOU | C.J. Stroud | 16 | 27 | 167 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 11.7 |
| 4 |  WAS | Athan Kaliakmanis | 15 | 33 | 186 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11.0 |
| Average | 20.0 | 33.0 | 264.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 20.8 | 0.3 | 19.2 | ||
| Median | 16.5 | 30.0 | 255.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 18.3 | ||
| High | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 29.0 | ||
| Low | 15 | 25 | 167 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 11.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Aaron Rodgers should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Aaron Rodgers has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Aaron Rodgers will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Aaron Rodgers's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Aaron Rodgers usually produces.
Projected is Aaron Rodgers's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 24 | 40 | 221 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 2 | NE | 23 | 39 | 187 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 3 | CIN | 19 | 34 | 292 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 22.7 |
| 4 | CLE | 22 | 40 | 299 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22.0 |
| 5 | IND | 22 | 31 | 235 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 22.0 |
| 6 | TB | 33 | 49 | 253 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16.0 |
| 7 | NO | 19 | 30 | 212 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13.1 |
| 8 | CLE | 13 | 25 | 172 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.9 |
| Rodgers avg | 21.9 | 36.0 | 233.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 14.6 | |
| Colts QB1 avg | 20.0 | 33.0 | 264.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 20.8 | 0.3 | 19.2 | |
| Difference | -1.9 | -3.0 | +30.9 | -0.1 | -0.5 | +2.0 | +17.9 | +0.3 | +4.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Rodgers averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreAaron Rodgers vs the Colts
Prediction for Aaron Rodgers
Nobody knows which slot Aaron Rodgers will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 17.2 points for Aaron Rodgers if playing as a QB1. Aaron Rodgers has averaged 15.3 over 4 games, and the Colts have given up 19.2 to QB1s (+15% vs the league average of 16.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Aaron Rodgers scored: Wk 1 12.5, Wk 2 4.0, Wk 3 22.7, Wk 4 22.0. Average 15.3; weighted toward recent games it is 15.8.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Colts allowed 19.2 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.6, so that is +15%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +9% adjustment (x1.09).
4. Result. 15.8 x 1.09 = 17.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Aaron Rodgers is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.3 points, leaning on Aaron Rodgers's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 264.8 passing yards, 1.5 passing TDs and 20.8 rushing yards against the Colts across 4 games.
- The Colts allow 19.2 PPR points to QB1s, +15% versus the league average of 16.6 (ranked 8 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Patrick Mahomes (29.0 pts, 382 pass yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 19.2 vs 15.9; pass yds 264.8 vs 225.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 4 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 11.0 to 29.0 (median 18.3).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 4 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.