Aaron Rodgers
QB
Pittsburgh Steelers
This is how QBs have played against the Bengals in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TB | Baker Mayfield | 23 | 28 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 11.6 |
| 2 |  HOU | C.J. Stroud | 30 | 55 | 353 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 17.0 |
| 3 | PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 19 | 34 | 292 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 22.7 |
| 4 |  JAX | Trevor Lawrence | 18 | 23 | 227 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13.1 |
| 5 |  MIA | Malik Willis | 15 | 27 | 137 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 74 | 1 | 18.9 |
| 7 |  BAL | Tyler Huntley | 23 | 34 | 298 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 15.1 |
| 8 |  TEN | Cam Ward | 26 | 40 | 304 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 41 | 0 | 26.3 |
| Average | 22.0 | 34.4 | 261.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 28.0 | 0.3 | 17.8 | ||
| Median | 23.0 | 34.0 | 292.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | ||
| High | 30 | 55 | 353 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 74 | 1 | 26.3 | ||
| Low | 15 | 23 | 137 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Aaron Rodgers should do vs the BengalsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bengals, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Aaron Rodgers has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bengals opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Aaron Rodgers will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bengals avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Aaron Rodgers's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Aaron Rodgers usually produces.
Projected is Aaron Rodgers's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bengals were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 24 | 40 | 221 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 2 | NE | 23 | 39 | 187 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 3 | CIN | 19 | 34 | 292 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 22.7 |
| 4 | CLE | 22 | 40 | 299 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22.0 |
| 5 | IND | 22 | 31 | 235 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 22.0 |
| 6 | TB | 33 | 49 | 253 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16.0 |
| 7 | NO | 19 | 30 | 212 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13.1 |
| 8 | CLE | 13 | 25 | 172 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.9 |
| Rodgers avg | 21.9 | 36.0 | 233.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 14.6 | |
| Bengals QB1 avg | 22.0 | 34.4 | 261.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 28.0 | 0.3 | 17.8 | |
| Difference | +0.1 | -1.6 | +27.1 | -0.5 | -0.2 | +3.1 | +25.1 | +0.3 | +3.2 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 23.1 | 38.1 | 247.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 14.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Rodgers averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Aaron RodgersGood confidence · 14.8 proj pts1/10 start
- Aaron Rodgers averages 14.6 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 13.7) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Bengals have allowed 17.8 points to QB1s over 7 games (+8% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +6% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.2) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +0%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 22.0 points for PIT (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 3.5: likely to pass more while trailing.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Jordan Battle (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Cedric Johnson (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 14.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 19.1 and a top-tier one about 23.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAaron Rodgers vs the Bengals
Prediction for Aaron Rodgers
Nobody knows which slot Aaron Rodgers will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bengals.
I predict about 14.6 points for Aaron Rodgers if playing as a QB1. Aaron Rodgers has averaged 14.6 over 8 games, and the Bengals have given up 17.8 to QB1s (+8% vs the league average of 16.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Aaron Rodgers scored: Wk 1 12.5, Wk 2 4.0, Wk 3 22.7, Wk 4 22.0, Wk 5 22.0, Wk 6 16.0, Wk 7 13.1, Wk 8 4.9. Average 14.6; weighted toward recent games it is 13.8.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Bengals allowed 17.8 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.5, so that is +8%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +6% adjustment (x1.06).
4. Result. 13.8 x 1.06 = 14.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Aaron Rodgers is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.5 points, leaning on Aaron Rodgers's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 15.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 261.0 passing yards, 1.1 passing TDs and 28.0 rushing yards against the Bengals across 7 games.
- The Bengals allow 17.8 PPR points to QB1s, +8% versus the league average of 16.5 (ranked 14 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 8, Cam Ward (26.3 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 17.8 vs 16.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 7 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 11.6 to 26.3 (median 17.0).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 120 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 7 games (86%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.