Nick Folk
K
Atlanta Falcons
This is how Ks have played against the Buccaneers in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CIN | Evan McPherson | 4 | 4 | 2 | 58 | 3 | 19.0 |
| 2 |  CLE | Andre Szmyt | 3 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 2 | 13.0 |
| 3 |  MIN | Will Reichard | 3 | 3 | 3 | 56 | 2 | 16.0 |
| 4 |  GB | Trey Smack | 1 | 1 | 1 | 58 | 2 | 7.0 |
| 5 |  DAL | Brandon Aubrey | 1 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 5.0 |
| 6 |  PIT | Chris Boswell | 4 | 5 | 2 | 58 | 2 | 18.0 |
| 7 |  CAR | Ryan Fitzgerald | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Average | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 45.9 | 1.9 | 11.3 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 56.0 | 2.0 | 13.0 | ||
| High | 4 | 5 | 3 | 58 | 3 | 19.0 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
How Nick Folk should do vs the BuccaneersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Buccaneers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Nick Folk has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Buccaneers opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Nick Folk will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Buccaneers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Nick Folk's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Nick Folk usually produces.
Projected is Nick Folk's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Buccaneers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 2 | 4 | 2 | 51 | 1 | 10.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 1 | 2 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 3 | GB | 2 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 10.0 |
| 4 | NO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 6 | 9.0 |
| 5 | BAL | 3 | 3 | 1 | 48 | 2 | 12.0 |
| 6 | CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| 7 | SF | 3 | 3 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 11.0 |
| 8 | TB | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Folk avg | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 31.5 | 1.9 | 7.1 | |
| Buccaneers K1 avg | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 45.9 | 1.9 | 11.3 | |
| Difference | +0.8 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +14.4 | -0.0 | +4.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Folk averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreNick Folk vs the Buccaneers
Prediction for Nick Folk
Nobody knows which slot Nick Folk will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Buccaneers.
I predict about 9.8 points for Nick Folk if playing as a K1. Nick Folk has averaged 8.1 over 7 games, and the Buccaneers have given up 11.3 to K1s (+29% vs the league average of 8.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Nick Folk scored: Wk 1 10.0, Wk 2 4.0, Wk 3 10.0, Wk 4 9.0, Wk 5 12.0, Wk 6 1.0, Wk 7 11.0. Average 8.1; weighted toward recent games it is 8.1.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Buccaneers allowed 11.3 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.7, so that is +29%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +21% adjustment (x1.21).
4. Result. 8.1 x 1.21 = 9.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Nick Folk is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.1 points, leaning on Nick Folk's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 2.3 field goals made, 2.4 field goal attempts and 1.9 extra points against the Buccaneers across 7 games.
- The Buccaneers allow 11.3 PPR points to K1s, +29% versus the league average of 8.7 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Evan McPherson (19.0 pts, 4 FG) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.3 vs 10.0; FG 2.3 vs 2.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 6, Chris Boswell (18.0 pts, 4 FG) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.3 vs 10.2; FG 2.3 vs 2.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 7 games reached 8+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.0 to 19.0 (median 13.0).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.