Geno Smith
QB
New York Jets
- Top target Garrett Wilson is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Patriots in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Drew Lock | 16 | 22 | 187 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 12.8 |
| 2 |  PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 23 | 39 | 187 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 3 |  JAX | Trevor Lawrence | 19 | 29 | 182 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 19.8 |
| 4 |  BUF | Josh Allen | 23 | 33 | 253 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 18.5 |
| 5 |  LV | Kirk Cousins | 19 | 28 | 243 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.7 |
| Average | 20.0 | 30.2 | 210.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 9.4 | 0.2 | 13.8 | ||
| Median | 19.0 | 29.0 | 187.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 13.7 | ||
| High | 23 | 39 | 253 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 19.8 | ||
| Low | 16 | 22 | 182 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Geno Smith should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Geno Smith has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Geno Smith will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Geno Smith's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Geno Smith usually produces.
Projected is Geno Smith's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 19 | 24 | 215 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 9.3 |
| 2 | GB | 27 | 41 | 247 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 15.6 |
| 3 | DET | 31 | 37 | 321 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 26.0 |
| 4 | CHI | 8 | 15 | 119 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 5 | CLE | 17 | 30 | 182 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 6 | NE | 20 | 30 | 252 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12.0 |
| 7 | MIA | 23 | 30 | 287 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23.5 |
| 8 | LV | 20 | 32 | 290 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 18.0 |
| Smith avg | 20.6 | 29.9 | 239.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 15.4 | |
| Patriots QB1 avg | 20.0 | 30.2 | 210.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 9.4 | 0.2 | 13.8 | |
| Difference | -0.6 | +0.3 | -28.7 | -0.3 | +0.2 | -0.5 | +3.7 | +0.2 | -1.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreGeno Smith vs the Patriots
Prediction for Geno Smith
Nobody knows which slot Geno Smith will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 11.5 points for Geno Smith if playing as a QB1. Geno Smith has averaged 13.9 over 5 games, and the Patriots have given up 13.8 to QB1s (-18% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Geno Smith scored: Wk 1 9.3, Wk 2 15.6, Wk 3 26.0, Wk 4 8.8, Wk 5 10.0. Average 13.9; weighted toward recent games it is 13.0.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Patriots allowed 13.8 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is -18%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -11% adjustment (x0.89).
4. Result. 13.0 x 0.89 = 11.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Geno Smith is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.2 points, leaning on Geno Smith's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 210.4 passing yards, 1.2 passing TDs and 9.4 rushing yards against the Patriots across 5 games.
- The Patriots allow 13.8 PPR points to QB1s, -18% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 24 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Aaron Rodgers (4.0 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.8 vs 16.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 5 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.0 to 19.8 (median 13.7).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 5 games (80%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.