Davante Adams
WR
Los Angeles RamsIR
This is how WRs have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | Jaylin Noel | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 2 |  DET | Jameson Williams | 4 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 5.3 |
| 3 |  LAC | Ladd McConkey | 5 | 4 | 66 | 0 | 10.6 |
| 4 |  NE | Efton Chism III | 4 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 12.2 |
| Average | 3.8 | 2.5 | 48.5 | 0.3 | 8.8 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 2.0 | 47.5 | 0.0 | 8.9 | ||
| High | 5 | 4 | 66 | 1 | 12.2 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 5.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Davante Adams should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Davante Adams has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Davante Adams will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Davante Adams's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Davante Adams usually produces.
Projected is Davante Adams's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 6 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 |
| 2 | NYG | 10 | 8 | 195 | 2 | 39.5 |
| 3 | DEN | 13 | 7 | 137 | 0 | 20.7 |
| 4 | PHI | 9 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 7.2 |
| 5 | BUF | 7 | 5 | 51 | 2 | 22.1 |
| 6 | ARI | 4 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Adams avg | 8.2 | 5.0 | 80.0 | 0.7 | 17.0 | |
| Bills WR2 avg | 3.8 | 2.5 | 48.5 | 0.3 | 8.8 | |
| Difference | -4.4 | -2.5 | -31.5 | -0.4 | -8.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Adams averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDavante Adams vs the Bills
Prediction for Davante Adams
Nobody knows which slot Davante Adams will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 17.0 points for Davante Adams if playing as a WR2. Davante Adams has averaged 18.3 over 4 games, and the Bills have given up 8.8 to WR2s (-1% vs the league average of 8.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Davante Adams scored: Wk 1 5.6, Wk 2 39.5, Wk 3 20.7, Wk 4 7.2. Average 18.3; weighted toward recent games it is 17.0.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Bills allowed 8.8 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.9, so that is -1%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -0% adjustment (x1.00).
4. Result. 17.0 x 1.00 = 17.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Davante Adams is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 13.9 points, leaning on Davante Adams's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 2.5 receptions, 48.5 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Bills across 4 games.
- The Bills allow 8.8 PPR points to WR2s, -1% versus the league average of 8.9 (ranked 14 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 2 of 4 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.3 to 12.2 (median 8.9).
- Every WR2 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 4 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.