Mike Evans
WR
San Francisco 49ersQ▲ Hot
- Teammate Christian McCaffrey (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Deebo Samuel Sr. (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Falcons in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Falcons in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Michael Pittman | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 2 |  CAR | Tetairoa McMillan | 10 | 5 | 101 | 0 | 15.1 |
| 3 |  GB | Christian Watson | 10 | 7 | 96 | 1 | 22.6 |
| 4 |  NO | Chris Olave | 12 | 8 | 116 | 0 | 19.6 |
| 5 |  BAL | Zay Flowers | 9 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 14.6 |
| 6 |  CHI | Luther Burden III | 8 | 8 | 95 | 0 | 17.5 |
| Average | 8.7 | 6.5 | 86.5 | 0.2 | 16.4 | ||
| Median | 9.5 | 7.5 | 95.5 | 0.0 | 16.3 | ||
| High | 12 | 8 | 116 | 1 | 22.6 | ||
| Low | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 8.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Mike Evans should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Mike Evans has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Mike Evans will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Mike Evans's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Mike Evans usually produces.
Projected is Mike Evans's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 7 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 16.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 3 | ARI | 6 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 12.4 |
| 4 | DEN | 8 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 | SEA | 10 | 7 | 113 | 1 | 26.3 |
| 6 | WAS | 5 | 3 | 94 | 0 | 12.4 |
| Evans avg | 6.5 | 4.5 | 70.0 | 0.5 | 14.8 | |
| Falcons WR1 avg | 8.7 | 6.5 | 86.5 | 0.2 | 16.4 | |
| Difference | +2.2 | +2.0 | +16.5 | -0.3 | +1.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Evans averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMike Evans vs the Falcons
Prediction for Mike Evans
Nobody knows which slot Mike Evans will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 13.6 points for Mike Evans if playing as a WR1. Mike Evans has averaged 14.8 over 6 games, and the Falcons have given up 16.4 to WR1s (-6% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Mike Evans scored: Wk 1 16.9, Wk 2 8.4, Wk 3 12.4, Wk 4 12.6, Wk 5 26.3, Wk 6 12.4. Average 14.8; weighted toward recent games it is 14.2.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Falcons allowed 16.4 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is -6%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -4% adjustment (x0.96).
4. Result. 14.2 x 0.96 = 13.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Mike Evans is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.2 points, leaning on Mike Evans's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 6.5 receptions, 86.5 receiving yards and 0.2 receiving TDs against the Falcons across 6 games.
- The Falcons allow 16.4 PPR points to WR1s, -6% versus the league average of 17.5 (ranked 19 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 5 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.8 to 22.6 (median 16.3).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 50 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 6 games (17%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.