Mike Evans
WR
San Francisco 49ersQ▲ Hot
- Teammate Christian McCaffrey (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Deebo Samuel Sr. (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Chargers in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Chargers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ARI | Kendrick Bourne | 8 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 2 |  LV | Tre Tucker | 7 | 5 | 119 | 1 | 22.9 |
| 3 |  BUF | DJ Moore | 10 | 6 | 67 | 0 | 12.7 |
| 4 |  SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 6 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 |  DEN | Courtland Sutton | 3 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 9.8 |
| 6 |  KC | Xavier Worthy | 7 | 7 | 73 | 0 | 14.3 |
| 8 |  LA | Puka Nacua | 12 | 11 | 80 | 1 | 25.0 |
| Average | 7.6 | 6.3 | 72.6 | 0.4 | 16.1 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 6.0 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 14.3 | ||
| High | 12 | 11 | 119 | 1 | 25.0 | ||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 9.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Mike Evans should do vs the ChargersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chargers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Mike Evans has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chargers opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Mike Evans will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chargers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Mike Evans's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Mike Evans usually produces.
Projected is Mike Evans's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chargers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 7 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 16.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 3 | ARI | 6 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 12.4 |
| 4 | DEN | 8 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 | SEA | 10 | 7 | 113 | 1 | 26.3 |
| 6 | WAS | 5 | 3 | 94 | 0 | 12.4 |
| Evans avg | 6.5 | 4.5 | 70.0 | 0.5 | 14.8 | |
| Chargers WR1 avg | 7.6 | 6.3 | 72.6 | 0.4 | 16.1 | |
| Difference | +1.1 | +1.8 | +2.6 | -0.1 | +1.3 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 67.1 | 0.5 | 13.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Evans averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Mike EvansGood confidence · 13.6 proj pts7/10 start
- Mike Evans averages 14.8 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 15.4) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Chargers have allowed 16.1 points to WR1s over 7 games (-6% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -4% adjustment.
- Last season's average (10.6) is blended in at 25% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 13.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMike Evans vs the Chargers
Prediction for Mike Evans
Nobody knows which slot Mike Evans will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chargers.
I predict about 13.6 points for Mike Evans if playing as a WR1. Mike Evans has averaged 14.8 over 6 games, and the Chargers have given up 16.1 to WR1s (-6% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Mike Evans scored: Wk 1 16.9, Wk 2 8.4, Wk 3 12.4, Wk 4 12.6, Wk 5 26.3, Wk 6 12.4. Average 14.8; weighted toward recent games it is 14.2.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Chargers allowed 16.1 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is -6%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -4% adjustment (x0.96).
4. Result. 14.2 x 0.96 = 13.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Mike Evans is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.2 points, leaning on Mike Evans's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 6.3 receptions, 72.6 receiving yards and 0.4 receiving TDs against the Chargers across 7 games.
- The Chargers allow 16.1 PPR points to WR1s, -6% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 19 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 8, Puka Nacua (25.0 pts, 11 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.1 vs 14.6; rec 6.3 vs 5.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Courtland Sutton (2 rec, 18 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: rec 6.3 vs 7.0; yds 72.6 vs 81.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 6 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.8 to 25.0 (median 14.3).
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 7 games (43%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.