Jameis Winston
QB
New York Giants▲ Hot
- Top target Malik Nabers is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Jalen Hurts | 14 | 25 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 24.7 |
| 2 |  DAL | Dak Prescott | 26 | 31 | 279 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 29.8 |
| 3 |  SEA | Sam Darnold | 31 | 45 | 379 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 27.7 |
| 4 |  IND | Daniel Jones | 19 | 34 | 143 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7.9 |
| Average | 22.5 | 33.8 | 251.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 19.8 | 0.3 | 22.5 | ||
| Median | 22.5 | 32.5 | 241.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 15.5 | 0.0 | 26.2 | ||
| High | 31 | 45 | 379 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 46 | 1 | 29.8 | ||
| Low | 14 | 25 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jameis Winston should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jameis Winston has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jameis Winston will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jameis Winston's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jameis Winston usually produces.
Projected is Jameis Winston's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LA | 11 | 27 | 111 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 3 | TEN | 14 | 22 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6.1 |
| 4 | ARI | 18 | 29 | 250 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.0 |
| 5 | WAS | 33 | 54 | 326 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 25.7 |
| 6 | NO | 14 | 26 | 152 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Winston avg | 18.0 | 31.6 | 191.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 11.8 | |
| Commanders QB1 avg | 22.5 | 33.8 | 251.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 19.8 | 0.3 | 22.5 | |
| Difference | +4.5 | +2.1 | +59.6 | +1.4 | -0.3 | +1.6 | +10.6 | +0.3 | +10.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Winston averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJameis Winston vs the Commanders
Prediction for Jameis Winston
Nobody knows which slot Jameis Winston will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 12.1 points for Jameis Winston if playing as a QB1. Jameis Winston has averaged 8.9 over 3 games, and the Commanders have given up 22.5 to QB1s (+35% vs the league average of 16.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jameis Winston scored: Wk 2 2.5, Wk 3 6.1, Wk 4 18.0. Average 8.9; weighted toward recent games it is 10.0.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Commanders allowed 22.5 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.6, so that is +35%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +20% adjustment (x1.20).
4. Result. 10.0 x 1.20 = 12.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jameis Winston is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.7 points, leaning on Jameis Winston's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 251.0 passing yards, 2.8 passing TDs and 19.8 rushing yards against the Commanders across 4 games.
- The Commanders allow 22.5 PPR points to QB1s, +35% versus the league average of 16.6 (ranked 2 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Sam Darnold (379 pass yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pass yds 251.0 vs 208.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Daniel Jones (7.9 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 22.5 vs 27.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 4 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.9 to 29.8 (median 26.2).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 120 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 4 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.