Carson Wentz
QB
Minnesota Vikings
This is how QBs have played against the Falcons in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 24 | 40 | 221 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 2 |  CAR | Bryce Young | 23 | 36 | 287 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 24.1 |
| 3 |  GB | Jordan Love | 28 | 53 | 312 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.5 |
| 4 |  NO | Tyler Shough | 30 | 48 | 286 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 15.9 |
| 5 |  BAL | Tyler Huntley | 24 | 32 | 201 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 24.0 |
| 6 |  CHI | Caleb Williams | 30 | 36 | 305 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16.5 |
| 7 |  SF | Brock Purdy | 27 | 40 | 288 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 12.0 |
| 8 |  TB | Baker Mayfield | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Average | 23.3 | 36.0 | 237.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 0.1 | 15.6 | ||
| Median | 25.5 | 38.0 | 286.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 16.2 | ||
| High | 30 | 53 | 312 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 24.1 | ||
| Low | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 1.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Carson Wentz should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Carson Wentz has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Carson Wentz will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Carson Wentz's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Carson Wentz usually produces.
Projected is Carson Wentz's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 12 | 19 | 133 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 19.2 |
| 2 | CHI | 11 | 20 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6.3 |
| Wentz avg | 11.5 | 19.5 | 138.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 12.8 | |
| Falcons QB1 avg | 23.3 | 36.0 | 237.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 0.1 | 15.6 | |
| Difference | +11.8 | +16.5 | +99.5 | -0.1 | +0.4 | -1.1 | +3.8 | +0.1 | +2.9 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 11.1 | 18.8 | 132.9 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 12.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Wentz averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Carson WentzMedium confidence · 12.6 proj pts1/10 start
- Carson Wentz averages 12.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 12.1) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Falcons have allowed 15.6 points to QB1s over 8 games (-5% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -4% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.1) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 12.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 19.1 and a top-tier one about 23.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreCarson Wentz vs the Falcons
Prediction for Carson Wentz
Nobody knows which slot Carson Wentz will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 12.6 points for Carson Wentz if playing as a QB1. Carson Wentz has averaged 12.8 over 2 games, and the Falcons have given up 15.6 to QB1s (-5% vs the league average of 16.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Carson Wentz scored: Wk 1 19.2, Wk 2 6.3. Average 12.8; weighted toward recent games it is 13.1.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Falcons allowed 15.6 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.5, so that is -5%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -4% adjustment (x0.96).
4. Result. 13.1 x 0.96 = 12.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Carson Wentz is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.5 points, leaning on Carson Wentz's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 237.5 passing yards, 1.4 passing TDs and 6.3 rushing yards against the Falcons across 8 games.
- The Falcons allow 15.6 PPR points to QB1s, -5% versus the league average of 16.5 (ranked 21 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 8, Baker Mayfield (1.4 pts, 0 pass yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.6 vs 17.7; pass yds 237.5 vs 271.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Bryce Young (24.1 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.6 vs 14.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 8 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.4 to 24.1 (median 16.2).
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 7 of 8 games (88%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.