Carson Wentz
QB
Minnesota Vikings
This is how QBs have played against the Bears in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Bryce Young | 23 | 37 | 361 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 31.4 |
| Average | 23.0 | 37.0 | 361.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 31.4 | ||
| Median | 23.0 | 37.0 | 361.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 31.4 | ||
| High | 23 | 37 | 361 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 31.4 | ||
| Low | 23 | 37 | 361 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 31.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Carson Wentz should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Carson Wentz has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Carson Wentz will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Carson Wentz's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Carson Wentz usually produces.
Projected is Carson Wentz's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 12 | 19 | 133 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 19.2 |
| 2 | CHI | 11 | 20 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6.3 |
| Wentz avg | 11.5 | 19.5 | 138.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 12.8 | |
| Bears QB1 avg | 23.0 | 37.0 | 361.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 31.4 | |
| Difference | +11.5 | +17.5 | +223.0 | +1.5 | +1.0 | -2.0 | +7.5 | +1.0 | +18.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Wentz averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreCarson Wentz vs the Bears
Prediction for Carson Wentz
Nobody knows which slot Carson Wentz will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 19.0 points for Carson Wentz if playing as a QB1. Carson Wentz has averaged 19.2 over 1 game, and the Bears have given up 31.4 to QB1s (+81% vs the league average of 17.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Carson Wentz scored: Wk 1 19.2. Average 19.2; weighted toward recent games it is 15.8.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Bears allowed 31.4 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.4, so that is +81%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +20% adjustment (x1.20).
4. Result. 15.8 x 1.20 = 19.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Carson Wentz is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (19.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.4 points, leaning on Carson Wentz's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 19.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 361.0 passing yards, 3.0 passing TDs and 10.0 rushing yards against the Bears across 1 game.
- The Bears allow 31.4 PPR points to QB1s, +81% versus the league average of 17.4 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.