Deshaun Watson
QB
Cleveland BrownsQ
- Top target Denzel Boston is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
- Top target Harold Fannin Jr. is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Buccaneers in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CIN | Joe Burrow | 25 | 35 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Average | 25.0 | 35.0 | 254.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 14.2 | ||
| Median | 25.0 | 35.0 | 254.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 14.2 | ||
| High | 25 | 35 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 14.2 | ||
| Low | 25 | 35 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 14.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Deshaun Watson should do vs the BuccaneersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Buccaneers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Deshaun Watson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Buccaneers opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Deshaun Watson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Buccaneers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Deshaun Watson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Deshaun Watson usually produces.
Projected is Deshaun Watson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Buccaneers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 16 | 22 | 205 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 14.0 |
| 2 | TB | 24 | 30 | 238 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 19.7 |
| 3 | CAR | 16 | 30 | 144 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 0 | 20.3 |
| 4 | PIT | 24 | 33 | 268 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 5 | NYJ | 15 | 33 | 155 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 12.2 |
| 6 | BAL | 16 | 26 | 164 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 7 | TEN | 25 | 36 | 308 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 18.2 |
| 8 | PIT | 27 | 39 | 324 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11.2 |
| Watson avg | 20.4 | 31.1 | 225.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 6.4 | 27.1 | 0.1 | 14.7 | |
| Buccaneers QB1 avg | 25.0 | 35.0 | 254.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 14.2 | |
| Difference | +4.6 | +3.9 | +28.3 | +0.1 | +0.6 | -1.4 | -7.1 | -0.1 | -0.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Watson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDeshaun Watson vs the Buccaneers
Prediction for Deshaun Watson
Nobody knows which slot Deshaun Watson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Buccaneers.
I predict about 13.3 points for Deshaun Watson if playing as a QB1. Deshaun Watson has averaged 14.0 over 1 game, and the Buccaneers have given up 14.2 to QB1s (-19% vs the league average of 17.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Deshaun Watson scored: Wk 1 14.0. Average 14.0; weighted toward recent games it is 14.0.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Buccaneers allowed 14.2 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.4, so that is -19%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -5% adjustment (x0.95).
4. Result. 14.0 x 0.95 = 13.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Deshaun Watson is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.0 points, leaning on Deshaun Watson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 254.0 passing yards, 1.0 passing TDs and 20.0 rushing yards against the Buccaneers across 1 game.
- The Buccaneers allow 14.2 PPR points to QB1s, -19% versus the league average of 17.4 (ranked 19 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.