Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR
Los Angeles Chargers
This is how WRs have played against the Broncos in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Broncos in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2 |  JAX | Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 4 |  SF | Jacob Cowing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 |
| 5 | LAC | Theo Wease Jr. | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 6 |  SEA | Cooper Kupp | 10 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 7 |  ARI | Kendrick Bourne | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 8 | KC | Cyrus Allen | 3 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 |
| Average | 3.3 | 1.7 | 17.6 | 0.0 | 3.5 | ||
| Median | 1.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | ||
| High | 10 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 10.0 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Marquez Valdes-Scantling should do vs the BroncosSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Marquez Valdes-Scantling has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Marquez Valdes-Scantling will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Marquez Valdes-Scantling's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Marquez Valdes-Scantling usually produces.
Projected is Marquez Valdes-Scantling's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | DEN | 3 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 4.2 |
| Valdes-Scantling avg | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 1.4 | |
| Broncos WR3 avg | 3.3 | 1.7 | 17.6 | 0.0 | 3.5 | |
| Difference | +1.6 | +1.0 | +10.2 | +0.0 | +2.1 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 2.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Valdes-Scantling averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Marquez Valdes-ScantlingGood confidence · 2.1 proj pts1/10 start
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling averages 1.4 PPR points over 3 games (recent-weighted 1.7) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Broncos have allowed 3.5 points to WR3s over 7 games (-20% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -14% adjustment.
- Last season's average (3.6) is blended in at 40% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 2.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMarquez Valdes-Scantling vs the Broncos
Prediction for Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Nobody knows which slot Marquez Valdes-Scantling will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 2.1 points for Marquez Valdes-Scantling if playing as a WR3. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has averaged 1.4 over 3 games, and the Broncos have given up 3.5 to WR3s (-20% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Marquez Valdes-Scantling scored: Wk 3 0.0, Wk 4 0.0, Wk 5 4.2. Average 1.4; weighted toward recent games it is 2.5.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Broncos allowed 3.5 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is -20%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -14% adjustment (x0.86).
4. Result. 2.5 x 0.86 = 2.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Marquez Valdes-Scantling is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.8 points, leaning on Marquez Valdes-Scantling's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 1.7 receptions, 17.6 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Broncos across 8 games.
- The Broncos allow 3.5 PPR points to WR3s, -20% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 26 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 6, Cooper Kupp (10.0 pts, 5 rec, 50 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 3.5 vs 2.4; rec 1.7 vs 1.2; yds 17.6 vs 12.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 10.0 (median 3.8).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 7 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.