Jason Sanders
K
New York Jets
This is how Ks have played against the Chiefs in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DEN | Wil Lutz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 4.0 |
| 2 |  IND | Spencer Shrader | 3 | 3 | 2 | 49 | 3 | 14.0 |
| 3 |  MIA | Riley Patterson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 4.0 |
| 4 |  LV | Matt Gay | 4 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 1 | 16.0 |
| 6 |  LAC | Cameron Dicker | 2 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 6.0 |
| 7 |  SEA | Jason Myers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 2 | 8.0 |
| 8 | DEN | Wil Lutz | 2 | 2 | 1 | 45 | 2 | 9.0 |
| Average | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 39.3 | 1.4 | 8.7 | ||
| Median | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 37.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | ||
| High | 4 | 4 | 3 | 49 | 3 | 16.0 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 4.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
How Jason Sanders should do vs the ChiefsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jason Sanders has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jason Sanders will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jason Sanders's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jason Sanders usually produces.
Projected is Jason Sanders's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 3 | 4 | 2 | 52 | 2 | 15.0 |
| 2 | GB | 1 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 5.0 |
| 3 | DET | 1 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 5.0 |
| 4 | CHI | 2 | 2 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 6.0 |
| 5 | CLE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 54 | 2 | 7.0 |
| 6 | NE | 4 | 4 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 15.0 |
| 7 | MIA | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 5.0 |
| 8 | LV | 4 | 4 | 0 | 39 | 3 | 15.0 |
| Sanders avg | 2.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 41.3 | 1.6 | 9.1 | |
| Chiefs K1 avg | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 39.3 | 1.4 | 8.7 | |
| Difference | +0.0 | -0.2 | +0.1 | -2.0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | |
| Projected as K1 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 41.6 | 1.6 | 9.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Sanders averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jason SandersGood confidence · 9.4 proj pts5/10 start
- Jason Sanders averages 9.1 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 9.8) and has played as the team's K1.
- The Chiefs have allowed 8.7 points to K1s over 7 games (+1% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +1% adjustment.
- Game environment -5%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 18.8 points for NYJ (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 10: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (65F, 9 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Projection: 9.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level K scores about 9.6 and a top-tier one about 14.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJason Sanders vs the Chiefs
Prediction for Jason Sanders
Nobody knows which slot Jason Sanders will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 9.9 points for Jason Sanders if playing as a K1. Jason Sanders has averaged 9.1 over 8 games, and the Chiefs have given up 8.7 to K1s (+1% vs the league average of 8.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jason Sanders scored: Wk 1 15.0, Wk 2 5.0, Wk 3 5.0, Wk 4 6.0, Wk 5 7.0, Wk 6 15.0, Wk 7 5.0, Wk 8 15.0. Average 9.1; weighted toward recent games it is 9.8.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Chiefs allowed 8.7 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.6, so that is +1%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +1% adjustment (x1.01).
4. Result. 9.8 x 1.01 = 9.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jason Sanders is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.9 points, leaning on Jason Sanders's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 2.1 field goals made, 2.1 field goal attempts and 1.4 extra points against the Chiefs across 7 games.
- The Chiefs allow 8.7 PPR points to K1s, +1% versus the league average of 8.6 (ranked 18 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Matt Gay (16.0 pts, 4 FG) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.7 vs 7.5; FG 2.1 vs 1.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Spencer Shrader (14.0 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.7 vs 7.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 7 games reached 8+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.0 to 16.0 (median 8.0).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.