Baker Mayfield
QB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is how QBs have played against the Falcons in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 24 | 40 | 221 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 2 |  CAR | Bryce Young | 23 | 36 | 287 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 24.1 |
| 3 |  GB | Jordan Love | 28 | 53 | 312 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.5 |
| 4 |  NO | Tyler Shough | 30 | 48 | 286 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 15.9 |
| 5 |  BAL | Tyler Huntley | 24 | 32 | 201 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 24.0 |
| 6 |  CHI | Caleb Williams | 30 | 36 | 305 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16.5 |
| 7 |  SF | Brock Purdy | 27 | 40 | 288 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 12.0 |
| 8 | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Average | 23.3 | 36.0 | 237.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 0.1 | 15.6 | ||
| Median | 25.5 | 38.0 | 286.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 16.2 | ||
| High | 30 | 53 | 312 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 24.1 | ||
| Low | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 1.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Baker Mayfield should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Baker Mayfield has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Baker Mayfield will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Baker Mayfield's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Baker Mayfield usually produces.
Projected is Baker Mayfield's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 23 | 28 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 11.6 |
| 2 | CLE | 21 | 34 | 182 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 12.2 |
| 3 | MIN | 17 | 34 | 217 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11.3 |
| 7 | CAR | 7 | 11 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| 8 | ATL | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Mayfield avg | 13.6 | 22.0 | 135.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 16.0 | 0.2 | 8.6 | |
| Falcons QB1 avg | 23.3 | 36.0 | 237.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 0.1 | 15.6 | |
| Difference | +9.7 | +14.0 | +101.7 | +0.8 | -0.0 | -0.3 | -9.8 | -0.1 | +7.0 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 13.1 | 21.2 | 130.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 15.4 | 0.2 | 9.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mayfield averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Baker MayfieldGood confidence · 9.5 proj pts1/10 start
- Baker Mayfield averages 8.6 PPR points over 5 games (recent-weighted 7.4) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Falcons have allowed 15.6 points to QB1s over 8 games (-5% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -4% adjustment.
- Last season's average (16.0) is blended in at 29% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 9.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 19.1 and a top-tier one about 23.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBaker Mayfield vs the Falcons
Prediction for Baker Mayfield
Nobody knows which slot Baker Mayfield will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 9.5 points for Baker Mayfield if playing as a QB1. Baker Mayfield has averaged 8.6 over 5 games, and the Falcons have given up 15.6 to QB1s (-5% vs the league average of 16.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Baker Mayfield scored: Wk 1 11.6, Wk 2 12.2, Wk 3 11.3, Wk 7 6.7, Wk 8 1.4. Average 8.6; weighted toward recent games it is 9.9.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Falcons allowed 15.6 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.5, so that is -5%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -4% adjustment (x0.96).
4. Result. 9.9 x 0.96 = 9.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Baker Mayfield is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.8 points, leaning on Baker Mayfield's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 237.5 passing yards, 1.4 passing TDs and 6.3 rushing yards against the Falcons across 8 games.
- The Falcons allow 15.6 PPR points to QB1s, -5% versus the league average of 16.5 (ranked 21 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 8, Baker Mayfield (1.4 pts, 0 pass yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.6 vs 17.7; pass yds 237.5 vs 271.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Bryce Young (24.1 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.6 vs 14.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 8 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.4 to 24.1 (median 16.2).
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 7 of 8 games (88%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.