Baker Mayfield
QB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Top target Emeka Egbuka is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Cowboys in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYG | Jaxson Dart | 23 | 29 | 230 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 54 | 0 | 26.6 |
| 2 |  WAS | Jayden Daniels | 11 | 17 | 96 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 69 | 0 | 14.7 |
| 3 |  BAL | Lamar Jackson | 15 | 20 | 186 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 20.4 |
| 4 |  HOU | C.J. Stroud | 21 | 31 | 347 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 23.1 |
| Average | 17.5 | 24.3 | 214.8 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 46.3 | 0.0 | 21.2 | ||
| Median | 18.0 | 24.5 | 208.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 21.8 | ||
| High | 23 | 31 | 347 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 69 | 0 | 26.6 | ||
| Low | 11 | 17 | 96 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 14.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Baker Mayfield should do vs the CowboysSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cowboys, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Baker Mayfield has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cowboys opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Baker Mayfield will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cowboys avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Baker Mayfield's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Baker Mayfield usually produces.
Projected is Baker Mayfield's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cowboys were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 23 | 28 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 11.6 |
| 2 | CLE | 21 | 34 | 182 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 12.2 |
| 3 | MIN | 17 | 34 | 217 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11.3 |
| 7 | CAR | 7 | 11 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| 8 | ATL | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Mayfield avg | 13.6 | 22.0 | 135.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 16.0 | 0.2 | 8.6 | |
| Cowboys QB1 avg | 17.5 | 24.3 | 214.8 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 46.3 | 0.0 | 21.2 | |
| Difference | +3.9 | +2.3 | +78.9 | +1.4 | -0.4 | +3.3 | +30.3 | -0.2 | +12.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mayfield averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBaker Mayfield vs the Cowboys
Prediction for Baker Mayfield
Nobody knows which slot Baker Mayfield will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cowboys.
I predict about 15.5 points for Baker Mayfield if playing as a QB1. Baker Mayfield has averaged 11.7 over 3 games, and the Cowboys have given up 21.2 to QB1s (+28% vs the league average of 16.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Baker Mayfield scored: Wk 1 11.6, Wk 2 12.2, Wk 3 11.3. Average 11.7; weighted toward recent games it is 13.4.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Cowboys allowed 21.2 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.6, so that is +28%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +16% adjustment (x1.16).
4. Result. 13.4 x 1.16 = 15.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Baker Mayfield is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.2 points, leaning on Baker Mayfield's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 214.8 passing yards, 2.0 passing TDs and 46.3 rushing yards against the Cowboys across 4 games.
- The Cowboys allow 21.2 PPR points to QB1s, +28% versus the league average of 16.6 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, C.J. Stroud (347 pass yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pass yds 214.8 vs 170.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Jayden Daniels (96 pass yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pass yds 214.8 vs 254.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 4 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 14.7 to 26.6 (median 21.8).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 80 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 4 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.