Baker Mayfield
QB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is how QBs have played against the Packers in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIN | Carson Wentz | 12 | 19 | 133 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 19.2 |
| 2 |  NYJ | Geno Smith | 27 | 41 | 247 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 15.6 |
| 3 |  ATL | Michael Penix Jr. | 18 | 25 | 256 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14.0 |
| Average | 19.0 | 28.3 | 212.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 16.3 | ||
| Median | 18.0 | 25.0 | 247.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 15.6 | ||
| High | 27 | 41 | 256 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 19.2 | ||
| Low | 12 | 19 | 133 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Baker Mayfield should do vs the PackersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Packers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Baker Mayfield has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Packers opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Baker Mayfield will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Packers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Baker Mayfield's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Baker Mayfield usually produces.
Projected is Baker Mayfield's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Packers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 23 | 28 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 11.6 |
| 2 | CLE | 21 | 34 | 182 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 12.2 |
| 3 | MIN | 17 | 34 | 217 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11.3 |
| 7 | CAR | 7 | 11 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| 8 | ATL | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Mayfield avg | 13.6 | 22.0 | 135.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 16.0 | 0.2 | 8.6 | |
| Packers QB1 avg | 19.0 | 28.3 | 212.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 16.3 | |
| Difference | +5.4 | +6.3 | +76.2 | +1.1 | -0.1 | +0.8 | -11.3 | -0.2 | +7.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mayfield averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBaker Mayfield vs the Packers
Prediction for Baker Mayfield
Nobody knows which slot Baker Mayfield will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Packers.
I predict about 13.1 points for Baker Mayfield if playing as a QB1. Baker Mayfield has averaged 11.7 over 3 games, and the Packers have given up 16.3 to QB1s (-5% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Baker Mayfield scored: Wk 1 11.6, Wk 2 12.2, Wk 3 11.3. Average 11.7; weighted toward recent games it is 13.4.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Packers allowed 16.3 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is -5%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -2% adjustment (x0.98).
4. Result. 13.4 x 0.98 = 13.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Baker Mayfield is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.2 points, leaning on Baker Mayfield's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 212.0 passing yards, 1.7 passing TDs and 4.7 rushing yards against the Packers across 3 games.
- The Packers allow 16.3 PPR points to QB1s, -5% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 19 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 2 of 3 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 14.0 to 19.2 (median 15.6).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 120 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 3 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.