Josh Allen
QB
Buffalo Bills
- Top target Dalton Kincaid is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
- Top target DJ Moore is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Raiders in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIA | Malik Willis | 15 | 27 | 220 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 16.7 |
| 2 |  LAC | Justin Herbert | 15 | 27 | 192 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 3 |  NO | Tyler Shough | 29 | 42 | 255 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 | 23.8 |
| 4 |  KC | Patrick Mahomes | 15 | 30 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17.0 |
| 5 |  NE | Drake Maye | 26 | 34 | 374 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 1 | 39.5 |
| Average | 20.0 | 32.0 | 253.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 20.4 | 0.4 | 21.0 | ||
| Median | 15.0 | 30.0 | 225.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | ||
| High | 29 | 42 | 374 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 39.5 | ||
| Low | 15 | 27 | 192 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Josh Allen should do vs the RaidersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Raiders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Josh Allen has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Raiders opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Josh Allen will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Raiders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Josh Allen's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Josh Allen usually produces.
Projected is Josh Allen's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Raiders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 20 | 29 | 334 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 35.7 |
| 2 | DET | 20 | 31 | 248 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 69 | 2 | 40.8 |
| 3 | LAC | 16 | 26 | 204 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 17.5 |
| 4 | NE | 23 | 33 | 253 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 18.5 |
| 5 | LA | 12 | 19 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 121 | 1 | 30.5 |
| 6 | LV | 23 | 33 | 255 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18.3 |
| 8 | BAL | 21 | 34 | 289 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 26.6 |
| Allen avg | 19.3 | 29.3 | 256.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 7.9 | 38.6 | 1.3 | 26.8 | |
| Raiders QB1 avg | 20.0 | 32.0 | 253.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 20.4 | 0.4 | 21.0 | |
| Difference | +0.7 | +2.7 | -2.9 | +0.6 | +0.1 | -4.1 | -18.2 | -0.9 | -5.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Allen averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJosh Allen vs the Raiders
Prediction for Josh Allen
Nobody knows which slot Josh Allen will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Raiders.
I predict about 30.0 points for Josh Allen if playing as a QB1. Josh Allen has averaged 28.6 over 5 games, and the Raiders have given up 21.0 to QB1s (+24% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Josh Allen scored: Wk 1 35.7, Wk 2 40.8, Wk 3 17.5, Wk 4 18.5, Wk 5 30.5. Average 28.6; weighted toward recent games it is 26.1.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Raiders allowed 21.0 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is +24%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +15% adjustment (x1.15).
4. Result. 26.1 x 1.15 = 30.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Josh Allen is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (30.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 12.0 points, leaning on Josh Allen's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 30.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 253.2 passing yards, 2.2 passing TDs and 20.4 rushing yards against the Raiders across 5 games.
- The Raiders allow 21.0 PPR points to QB1s, +24% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Drake Maye (39.5 pts, 374 pass yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 21.0 vs 16.3; pass yds 253.2 vs 223.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Justin Herbert (7.9 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 21.0 vs 24.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 5 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.9 to 39.5 (median 17.0).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 5 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.