Josh Allen
QB
Buffalo Bills
- Top target Dalton Kincaid is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
- Top target DJ Moore is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Patriots in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Drew Lock | 16 | 22 | 187 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 12.8 |
| 2 |  PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 23 | 39 | 187 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 3 |  JAX | Trevor Lawrence | 19 | 29 | 182 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 19.8 |
| Average | 19.3 | 30.0 | 185.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 12.2 | ||
| Median | 19.0 | 29.0 | 187.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 12.8 | ||
| High | 23 | 39 | 187 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 19.8 | ||
| Low | 16 | 22 | 182 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Josh Allen should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Josh Allen has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Josh Allen will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Josh Allen's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Josh Allen usually produces.
Projected is Josh Allen's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 20 | 29 | 334 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 35.7 |
| 2 | DET | 20 | 31 | 248 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 69 | 2 | 40.8 |
| 3 | LAC | 16 | 26 | 204 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 17.5 |
| 4 | NE | 23 | 33 | 253 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 18.5 |
| 5 | LA | 12 | 19 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 121 | 1 | 30.5 |
| 6 | LV | 23 | 33 | 255 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18.3 |
| 8 | BAL | 21 | 34 | 289 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 26.6 |
| Allen avg | 19.3 | 29.3 | 256.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 7.9 | 38.6 | 1.3 | 26.8 | |
| Patriots QB1 avg | 19.3 | 30.0 | 185.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 12.2 | |
| Difference | +0.0 | +0.7 | -70.8 | -0.2 | -0.0 | -5.5 | -24.2 | -1.3 | -14.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Allen averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJosh Allen vs the Patriots
Prediction for Josh Allen
Nobody knows which slot Josh Allen will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 23.2 points for Josh Allen if playing as a QB1. Josh Allen has averaged 31.3 over 3 games, and the Patriots have given up 12.2 to QB1s (-29% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Josh Allen scored: Wk 1 35.7, Wk 2 40.8, Wk 3 17.5. Average 31.3; weighted toward recent games it is 27.1.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Patriots allowed 12.2 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is -29%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -14% adjustment (x0.86).
4. Result. 27.1 x 0.86 = 23.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Josh Allen is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (23.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 13.1 points, leaning on Josh Allen's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 23.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 185.3 passing yards, 1.3 passing TDs and 14.3 rushing yards against the Patriots across 3 games.
- The Patriots allow 12.2 PPR points to QB1s, -29% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 28 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Trevor Lawrence (19.8 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.2 vs 8.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Aaron Rodgers (4.0 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.2 vs 16.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 3 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.0 to 19.8 (median 12.8).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 3 games (67%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.