Gardner Minshew
QB
Arizona Cardinals
- Top target Kendrick Bourne is on IR, which can lower the passing game.
- Top target Michael Wilson is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Rams in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Brock Purdy | 25 | 34 | 205 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 21.1 |
| 2 |  NYG | Jameis Winston | 11 | 27 | 111 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 3 |  DEN | Bo Nix | 17 | 34 | 186 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 24.1 |
| 4 |  PHI | Jalen Hurts | 12 | 27 | 93 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 13.5 |
| 5 |  BUF | Josh Allen | 12 | 19 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 121 | 1 | 30.5 |
| 6 | ARI | Jacoby Brissett | 24 | 35 | 218 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6.9 |
| 7 |  LV | Kirk Cousins | 26 | 44 | 295 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 20.4 |
| 8 |  LAC | Justin Herbert | 24 | 32 | 257 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Average | 18.9 | 31.5 | 196.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 24.9 | 0.3 | 15.9 | ||
| Median | 20.5 | 33.0 | 207.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | ||
| High | 26 | 44 | 295 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 121 | 1 | 30.5 | ||
| Low | 11 | 19 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Gardner Minshew should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Gardner Minshew has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Gardner Minshew will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Gardner Minshew's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Gardner Minshew usually produces.
Projected is Gardner Minshew's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | DAL | 17 | 23 | 188 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19.5 |
| Minshew avg | 17.0 | 23.0 | 188.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.5 | |
| Rams QB1 avg | 18.9 | 31.5 | 196.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 24.9 | 0.3 | 15.9 | |
| Difference | +1.9 | +8.5 | +8.9 | -1.8 | +0.9 | +4.4 | +24.9 | +0.3 | -3.7 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 16.6 | 22.4 | 183.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Minshew averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Gardner MinshewLow confidence · 19.0 proj pts5/10 start
- Gardner Minshew averages 19.5 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 19.5) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Rams have allowed 15.9 points to QB1s over 8 games (-4% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -3% adjustment.
- Projection: 19.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 19.1 and a top-tier one about 23.8.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreGardner Minshew vs the Rams
Prediction for Gardner Minshew
Nobody knows which slot Gardner Minshew will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 19.0 points for Gardner Minshew if playing as a QB1. Gardner Minshew has averaged 19.5 over 1 game, and the Rams have given up 15.9 to QB1s (-4% vs the league average of 16.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Gardner Minshew scored: Wk 8 19.5. Average 19.5; weighted toward recent games it is 19.5.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Rams allowed 15.9 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.5, so that is -4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -3% adjustment (x0.97).
4. Result. 19.5 x 0.97 = 19.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Gardner Minshew is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (19.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.4 points, leaning on Gardner Minshew's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 19.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 196.9 passing yards, 1.3 passing TDs and 24.9 rushing yards against the Rams across 8 games.
- The Rams allow 15.9 PPR points to QB1s, -4% versus the league average of 16.5 (ranked 20 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Josh Allen (30.5 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.9 vs 13.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Bo Nix (24.1 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.9 vs 14.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 8 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.5 to 30.5 (median 17.0).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 80 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 8 games (63%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.