Drew Lock
QB
Seattle SeahawksQ
This is how QBs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Jalen Hurts | 14 | 25 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 24.7 |
| 2 |  DAL | Dak Prescott | 26 | 31 | 279 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 29.8 |
| Average | 20.0 | 28.0 | 241.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 27.2 | ||
| Median | 20.0 | 28.0 | 241.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 27.2 | ||
| High | 26 | 31 | 279 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 29.8 | ||
| Low | 14 | 25 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 24.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Drew Lock should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Drew Lock has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Drew Lock will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Drew Lock's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Drew Lock usually produces.
Projected is Drew Lock's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 16 | 22 | 187 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 12.8 |
| 2 | ARI | 19 | 26 | 235 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.4 |
| Lock avg | 17.5 | 24.0 | 211.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 17.1 | |
| Commanders QB1 avg | 20.0 | 28.0 | 241.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 27.2 | |
| Difference | +2.5 | +4.0 | +30.0 | +1.5 | +0.0 | +4.5 | +29.5 | +0.0 | +10.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Lock averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDrew Lock vs the Commanders
Prediction for Drew Lock
Nobody knows which slot Drew Lock will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 21.9 points for Drew Lock if playing as a QB1. Drew Lock has averaged 17.1 over 2 games, and the Commanders have given up 27.2 to QB1s (+62% vs the league average of 16.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Drew Lock scored: Wk 1 12.8, Wk 2 21.4. Average 17.1; weighted toward recent games it is 17.6.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Commanders allowed 27.2 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.8, so that is +62%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +25% adjustment (x1.25).
4. Result. 17.6 x 1.25 = 21.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Drew Lock is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (21.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 13.2 points, leaning on Drew Lock's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 22.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 241.0 passing yards, 3.5 passing TDs and 36.0 rushing yards against the Commanders across 2 games.
- The Commanders allow 27.2 PPR points to QB1s, +62% versus the league average of 16.8 (ranked 2 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 24.7 to 29.8 (median 27.2).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 200 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.