Daniel Jones
QB
Indianapolis Colts
This is how QBs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Jalen Hurts | 14 | 25 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 24.7 |
| 2 |  DAL | Dak Prescott | 26 | 31 | 279 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 29.8 |
| 3 |  SEA | Sam Darnold | 31 | 45 | 379 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 27.7 |
| Average | 23.7 | 33.7 | 287.0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 25.7 | 0.0 | 27.4 | ||
| Median | 26.0 | 31.0 | 279.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 27.7 | ||
| High | 31 | 45 | 379 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 29.8 | ||
| Low | 14 | 25 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 24.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Daniel Jones should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Daniel Jones has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Daniel Jones will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Daniel Jones's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Daniel Jones usually produces.
Projected is Daniel Jones's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 19 | 31 | 166 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 2 | KC | 22 | 31 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 11.4 |
| 3 | HOU | 24 | 36 | 235 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 4 | WAS | 19 | 34 | 143 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7.9 |
| 5 | PIT | 24 | 44 | 267 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11.1 |
| 6 | TEN | 22 | 42 | 269 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 13.8 |
| 7 | MIN | 13 | 22 | 108 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 8 | JAX | 19 | 28 | 144 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Jones avg | 20.3 | 33.5 | 192.8 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 9.4 | 0.1 | 8.9 | |
| Commanders QB1 avg | 23.7 | 33.7 | 287.0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 25.7 | 0.0 | 27.4 | |
| Difference | +3.4 | +0.2 | +94.3 | +3.0 | -0.5 | +0.9 | +16.3 | -0.1 | +18.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jones averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDaniel Jones vs the Commanders
Prediction for Daniel Jones
Nobody knows which slot Daniel Jones will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 16.3 points for Daniel Jones if playing as a QB1. Daniel Jones has averaged 9.4 over 3 games, and the Commanders have given up 27.4 to QB1s (+60% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Daniel Jones scored: Wk 1 9.0, Wk 2 11.4, Wk 3 7.9. Average 9.4; weighted toward recent games it is 12.6.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Commanders allowed 27.4 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +60%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 12.6 x 1.30 = 16.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Daniel Jones is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.5 points, leaning on Daniel Jones's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 287.0 passing yards, 3.7 passing TDs and 25.7 rushing yards against the Commanders across 3 games.
- The Commanders allow 27.4 PPR points to QB1s, +60% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 2 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 3 of 3 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 24.7 to 29.8 (median 27.7).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 200 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 3 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.