Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR
San Francisco 49ersQ
- Teammate Christian McCaffrey (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Mike Evans (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Falcons in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Falcons in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | DK Metcalf | 10 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 2 |  CAR | Jalen Coker | 9 | 8 | 66 | 0 | 14.6 |
| 3 |  GB | Matthew Golden | 12 | 5 | 100 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 4 |  NO | Devaughn Vele | 9 | 6 | 54 | 1 | 17.4 |
| 5 |  BAL | Rashod Bateman | 6 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 11.2 |
| 6 |  CHI | Rome Odunze | 4 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Average | 8.3 | 5.2 | 60.2 | 0.3 | 13.2 | ||
| Median | 9.0 | 5.0 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 12.9 | ||
| High | 12 | 8 | 100 | 1 | 21.0 | ||
| Low | 4 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 6.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Deebo Samuel Sr. should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Deebo Samuel Sr. has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Deebo Samuel Sr. will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Deebo Samuel Sr.'s own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Deebo Samuel Sr. usually produces.
Projected is Deebo Samuel Sr.'s recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 7 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 18.0 |
| 2 | MIA | 4 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 6.5 |
| 4 | DEN | 6 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 18.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Sr. avg | 5.0 | 4.0 | 31.5 | 0.5 | 11.3 | |
| Falcons WR2 avg | 8.3 | 5.2 | 60.2 | 0.3 | 13.2 | |
| Difference | +3.3 | +1.2 | +28.7 | -0.2 | +1.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Sr. averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDeebo Samuel Sr. vs the Falcons
Prediction for Deebo Samuel Sr.
Nobody knows which slot Deebo Samuel Sr. will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 14.0 points for Deebo Samuel Sr. if playing as a WR2. Deebo Samuel Sr. has averaged 11.3 over 4 games, and the Falcons have given up 13.2 to WR2s (+49% vs the league average of 8.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Deebo Samuel Sr. scored: Wk 1 18.0, Wk 2 6.5, Wk 4 18.0, Wk 5 2.5. Average 11.3; weighted toward recent games it is 10.8.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Falcons allowed 13.2 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.9, so that is +49%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 10.8 x 1.30 = 14.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Deebo Samuel Sr. is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.1 points, leaning on Deebo Samuel Sr.'s own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 5.2 receptions, 60.2 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Falcons across 6 games.
- The Falcons allow 13.2 PPR points to WR2s, +49% versus the league average of 8.9 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Matthew Golden (21.0 pts, 100 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.2 vs 11.6; yds 60.2 vs 52.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Jalen Coker (8 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rec 5.2 vs 4.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.9 to 21.0 (median 12.9).
- Every WR2 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 2 of 6 games (33%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.