AJ Dillon
RB
Carolina Panthers
This is how RBs have played against the Broncos in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Broncos in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Emmett Johnson | 8 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 2 |  JAX | Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 3 |  LA | Blake Corum | 6 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 |
| 4 |  SF | Kaelon Black | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 5 |  LAC | Keaton Mitchell | 6 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 6 |  SEA | Emanuel Wilson | 14 | 52 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.2 |
| 7 |  ARI | Tyler Allgeier | 8 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 8 | KC | Kenneth Walker III | 21 | 69 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 12.4 |
| Average | 9.0 | 26.8 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 13.6 | 0.0 | 5.9 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 5.6 | ||
| High | 21 | 69 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 12.4 | ||
| Low | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How AJ Dillon should do vs the BroncosSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game AJ Dillon has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot AJ Dillon will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus AJ Dillon's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than AJ Dillon usually produces.
Projected is AJ Dillon's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 5 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 |
| 2 | ATL | 3 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| 3 | CLE | 4 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 4 | DET | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Dillon avg | 4.3 | 10.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.7 | |
| Broncos RB2 avg | 9.0 | 26.8 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 13.6 | 0.0 | 5.9 | |
| Difference | +4.8 | +16.0 | +0.0 | +2.0 | +1.4 | +12.9 | +0.0 | +4.3 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 4.7 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Dillon averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · AJ DillonGood confidence · 1.8 proj pts1/10 start
- AJ Dillon averages 1.7 PPR points over 4 games (recent-weighted 1.6) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Broncos have allowed 5.9 points to RB2s over 8 games (+16% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +12% adjustment.
- Last season's average (1.5) is blended in at 33% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -3%: Vegas total 44.5, implied 21.0 points for CAR (league avg 22.6); Mild weather (64F, 5 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Eyioma Uwazurike (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Talanoa Hufanga (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 1.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAJ Dillon vs the Broncos
Prediction for AJ Dillon
Nobody knows which slot AJ Dillon will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 1.8 points for AJ Dillon if playing as a RB2. AJ Dillon has averaged 1.7 over 4 games, and the Broncos have given up 5.9 to RB2s (+16% vs the league average of 5.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. AJ Dillon scored: Wk 1 2.8, Wk 2 -0.3, Wk 3 2.4, Wk 4 1.7. Average 1.7; weighted toward recent games it is 1.6.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Broncos allowed 5.9 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.1, so that is +16%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +12% adjustment (x1.12).
4. Result. 1.6 x 1.12 = 1.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely AJ Dillon is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (1.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.3 points, leaning on AJ Dillon's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 9.0 carries, 26.8 rushing yards and 1.9 receptions against the Broncos across 8 games.
- The Broncos allow 5.9 PPR points to RB2s, +16% versus the league average of 5.1 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 8, Kenneth Walker III (12.4 pts, 21 car, 69 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.9 vs 5.0; car 9.0 vs 7.3; rush yds 26.8 vs 20.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.3 to 12.4 (median 5.6).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 8 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.